Roller coaster weather

By Jim Noel, NOAA

The climate has been on a wild roller coaster. After a cool early May, late May was really warm bringing temperatures for May to near normal. Rainfall has also been on a roller coaster.

For June we expect the roller coaster to continue with the trend being your friend. Confidence is not high in the outlooks as our models have struggled a little. The soil moisture you have in the ground is a great predictor (30-50% of the total weight) of your potential outcome for rainfall in the summer. Dry areas tend to stay drier and wet areas tend to stay wetter. 

The June outlook calls for slightly warmer than normal temperatures (with some big swings still). It may start off a little cooler before turning warmer than normal again.  Rainfall favors not far from normal north and wetter than normal far south. Confidence is low in the northwest area of the state where it could also end a bit drier as storms keep missing that area.

The summer outlook keeps that pattern going into August with warmer than average (but not real extreme) and rainfall favoring above especially in the far eastern areas. The northwest area is very uncertain as it could go toward the dry or wet side.

Fall harvest season continues the trend of warmer than normal but again not real extreme deviations. Rainfall will be driven by how the tropical season shapes up. If the return flow from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic track is over us it would be wetter this autumn but if the moisture track is to our east then it will create a downward motion with drier than normal conditions. We will update this as summer progresses.

The 16 day rainfall outlook can be found here:https://www.weather.gov/images/ohrfc/dynamic/NAEFS16.apcp.mean.total.png

Typically we receive around 2 inches over a 16-day period currently.

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