Near term forecast stays dry, and we are removing some moisture from early next week. However, we are putting some in toward the end of the 10 day forecast window. So, overall, we are at a wash, in terms of overall moisture in this forecast this morning.
Nothing going on statewide the next few days. Yeah, we cant rule out a shower or two in limited areas of NE Ohio today as clouds remains a little thicker in that part of the region, but generally the rest of us turn out partly to mostly sunny and warm. Full sunshine expected tomorrow, Thursday and most of Friday. Late Friday afternoon showers and storms can develop and we see .25″-1″ rain potential out of that through the overnight Friday night into early Saturday. Coverage is not all that great, but can push 60%
Dry the rest of the weekend and the first part of Monday. A cold front moves across the state from west to east Monday night through Tuesday, brining showers, but far less rain than we were concerned about yesterday. We can see a few hundredths to .5″ with coverage at 80% of Ohio out of that front. However, we do not see any reinforcing moisture coming behind it, so we tur out partly sunny and dry for all of Wednesday.
A strong batch of thunderstorms begins to brew in the Central plains and MO valley next Wednesday. That moisture lifts northeast for Thursday and we can see a good round of showers and storms here. Track of the system is important. Right now data points to moisture staying south of US 30…but that can easily change. We will put initial totals at .5″-1.5″ over 60% of Ohio, but will be tweaking that forecast as we get closer to the event. Models are also not in the best agreement on timing and placement either…so while it will be easy to get hopes up for rain by the time we reach the second half of next week, we urge caution right now on “planning on” anything of significance,
Temps stay mostly normal to above normal through the 10 day period. We can dial temps back just a bit for a day or two next week behind the early week cold front, but nothing stays long term. Moisture potential for the full 10 days is heavily dependent on thunderstorms developing near the end of the 10 day period, but the map below shows 10 day rain totals as we see the potential this morning. Stay tuned.