Sunny, warm and dry to start off the week, which is an extension of the pattern that had full control of Ohio through the weekend. We will see above normal temps today and tomorrow along with slightly higher humidity. All precipitation stays to our north over MI and southern Ontario. Clouds may start to build late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.
Scattered, heat based showers and storms begin to pop up after sunset, first over western and northwestern Ohio. through the rest of the overnight and through Wednesday, this action shifts and spreads south and east across the rest of the state. The biggest potential for strong storms overnight tomorrow nigh will stay in far eastern IN and far western OH, while the best chance of stronger storms Wednesday will be in eastern OH. Combined, from tomorrow evening through Wednesday we can see rain totals of .25″-1.5″ over 80% of Ohio. The map below shows potential coverage as we see it this morning.
Thursday and Friday swing back dry again, but humidity levels stay elevated. Temps may pull back a few degrees for Thursday, but will warm again Friday. The warm and dry pattern holds through the weekend, although by Sunday we are going to have to keep an eye on heat based pop up showers to our west. Right now, we think they stay out of Ohio for the most part through midnight Sunday. Monday we have a slightly better chance but still see more dry areas in Ohio than wet.
Finally, a front moves into the state from the west on Monday evening (20th) and into Tuesday the 21st. However, the moisture races up the front to the NE, meaning we see coverage of moisture in that window of only 40% with rain totals of .5″ or less. The rest of the state stays dry, especially the eastern half. Wednesday and Thursday turn out partly sunny, but stay warm and humid.
AT the end of the 10 day window, there looks to be a strong front holding off to the NW over the Upper Midwest. There is plentiful moisture with that front. However the key to anything developing down here will stay with the movement of the cooler air. IF that Canadian air mass can break free and swing south, we will be inline to get some rain late the 24th or 25th. If the heat holds over the eastern corn belt and keeps the cooler air north, we likely see a continuation of this below normal precipitation pattern on through the end of next week and the following weekend.