Rain today and tomorrow will total .5″-1.5″ over a majority of the state. We expect 2 pulses of rain. The first round here for the morning and afternoon may focus a bit more on northern areas than south, although we wont rule anyone out. The second overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning is statewide, and has the bigger threat of thunderstorms. The moisture will stall harvest for a good 48 hours at least, and some areas for longer dependent on thunderstorms and what was picked up earlier this week. Temps will cool behind the front tomorrow afternoon, as clouds break later in the day.
We should clear out overnight tomorrow night, and then turn out sunny for Sunday. Temps will start to rebound quickly, and will be warmer than how we finish tomorrow. We stay sunny and dry through at least Wednesday, with temps normal to above normal.
Thursday we are having to insert some moisture into our forecast. Cooler air is looking to do some battle with warmer, more humid air as it dives southward out of Canada. We have concern that the set up will be able to wring some moisture out of our atmosphere, and trigger scattered showers for next Thursday. Rain coverage could be up to 70%, and totals anywhere from a few hundredths to .5″. Models continue to have some significant disagreements on if and how moisture develops in this time frame, so look for an update again Monday morning. But for now, we want to make sure we have some moisture potential in the forecast due to the importance of any rain forecast through fall harvest.
Friday we clear out again (if moisture materializes) and we turn out partly to mostly sunny and dry from the 22nd through the 27th. Temps will be normal to a bit above normal, and we should see another good round of evaporation and drying. A strong storm complex is looking likely before the end of the month, somewhere in the 28th-30th window, and may bring moderate to heavy rain. So, we need to make every available day of potential harvest count in the days ahead.
We need some luck in this forecast scenario…if we can miss the moisture next Thursday, we could be looking at a significant harvest progress window. If the showers stay in the forecast, we still have better windows than we have seen for the past 10 days, but it will be a little less than ideal.