Better weather attempts to gain control over Ohio today, as clouds break for some sun. We will remain chilly today, but temps do start to moderate late today and we see that continue overnight. We will not be as cold tomorrow, at least as we start out. Do not expect a lot of wholesale melting, though, as we just don’t put in enough hours with good sun to get much done. We start with sun tomorrow, but by late in the day clouds are back as much colder air blasts back in on NW flow. While we expect a wind shift tomorrow, we will not see any associated frontal precipitation.
Lake effect snow potential is back for Thursday as a strong flow continues out of the north and NW. Admittedly, the bigger threat of lake effect is farther west in Indiana, but we can see some snow over northern tier counties and in the “usual suspect” areas in north central and especially NE Ohio. The set up is good for all day Thursday, Friday we less threat of lake snows, and also have high pressure sitting almost directly on top of us. That will bring the coldest air of the week, but also decent sun. That sun potential holds through Saturday as well.
Sunday we look for a minor wave to pass by to the north, over Ontario. This wave is delayed and farther north than what we were seeing yesterday. However, it can throw clouds down into northern Ohio, and we have to keep an eye out for a few flurries from US 30 north. A better organized system moves through next monday, and will also trigger snow. Totals will likely be from 1″-4″ with coverage at 70% of the state. The map below gives our thoughts at the moment. Behind that system, clouds mix with sun Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure settles over the top of us for next Thursday, bringing back arctic air for at least several days.
Overall, we see more cold days than mild days ahead. We are moving through the “dead of winter” as the next 5-6 nights are typically the coldest of the year, at least as you look back through history. We are on track to see January finish out much colder than normal, and the entire month will likely turn out below normal too.