Sunny, hot and dry again today. However, a frontal boundary will try and sag into the state after midnight tonight and early tomorrow morning. This may be able to trigger a few hit and miss showers in NW and northern Ohio late this evening and into early tomorrow morning. Coverage is minor, at 30% of the state, but we wont say all areas stay dry either. If rain happens, we are looking at a few hundredths to a few tenths, down to at most I-70.
The balance of Saturday turns out partly sunny, warm and humid. Sunday and Monday will be similar. WE cant rule out a few heat based pop up showers in southern Ohio, mostly near the river, but the majority of the state stays dry through the entire independence day holiday weekend.
Clouds build monday night, and that leads to showers and thunderstorms monday overnight through Tuesday. This looks to be a significant rain event, with rain potential at .25″-1″ and nearly 100% coverage. the map below shows rain potential from midnight monday through sunrise Wednesday. For the rest of the week, Wednesday through Friday, we see a mix of clouds and sun with warm and humid afternoons. The atmosphere will be rather unsettled, and that leads to the chance of showers and thunderstorms. We will put daily coverage at no better than 40% with rain totals generally under half an inch. However, if there is a threat of stronger thunderstorms, that threat may come on Friday, so we are still watching closely how things develop there.
We finish the 10 day period next weekend with the pattern going back to dry. WE should be sunny and very warm with near maximum evaporation for next Saturday and Sunday. As an upper level ridge builds into the Great Plains, the pattern looks to stay dry for the week after that.