USDA report neutral

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Old crop soybean exports jumped 30 million bushels. Old corn exports dropped 50 million bushels.

Traders were looking for a pretty boring report with little changes compared to last month. US old soybean exports were expected to increase from last month’s estimate at 2.170 billion bushels. While there is lots of talk about Ukraine still having in excess of 400 million bushels of unshipped grain sales yet to take place, it is anybody’s guess as to when shipments will take place.

Barring a drastic change in the Russian invasion, the market still needs to account for grain deficits in multiple regions in the world.

Continue to watch what Russia does, not what they say. For example, last weekend they bombed a major Ukraine grain export facility. But the news prior to the bombing was focused on the potential of export corridors taking place.

Following the noon report release, corn was up 1 cent, and soybeans down 7 cents. Prior to the report, corn was down 3 cents, soybeans down 18 cents, and wheat down 5 cents.

US corn ending stocks for 2021-2022 were 1.485 billion bushels, last month 1.440 billion bushels. US soybean ending stocks were 205 million bushels, last month 235 million bushels. US wheat ending stocks were 655  million bushels, last month 655 million bushels.

US corn ending stocks for 2022-2023 were 1.4 billion bushels, last month 1.360 billion bushels; soybeans 280 million bushels, last month 310 million bushels; and wheat 627  million bushels, last month 619 million bushels.

Trader estimates for 2021-2022, US corn ending stocks 1.437 billion bushels, soybean ending stocks 218 million bushels, and wheat ending stocks 666 million bushels.

Trader estimates of ending stocks for the 2022-23 marketing year, corn 1.340 billion bushels, soybeans 307 million bushels, and wheat 614 million bushels.

USDA today projected China would be importing 92  million tons of world soybeans, last month   was 92 million tons.

Brazil soybean production was 126 million tons, last month 125 million tons. Brazil corn production was 116 million tons, last month 116 million tons. Argentina soybean production was 43.4  million tons, last month 42 million tons. Argentina corn production was 53 million tons, last month 53 million tons.

The weather forecasts have changed dramatically in the past 10 days. The current feature details concerns with a ridge developing which could bring hot and dry weather to the Midwest. Last week there was little concern about weather as the forecast detailed normal rain and normal temperatures.

Food crisis for developing countries will pick up steam in the next 45 days. They need wheat imports to be able to grind wheat into flour. Yet, they barely have 25% of the wheat required to turn into flour already in position.

Recent reports indicate that US personal borrowing jumped by double digits in both April and May. It indicates consumers are borrowing money in huge proportions to buy goods at inflated prices.

Look for grain prices to see huge ranges with daily closing prices changing by dimes 3 times a week or more for corn, soybeans, and wheat.

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