Warmer June ahead

By Jim Noel, NOAA

May worked out as forecast with a wet start followed by a gradual planting window.

Looking forward, the variable weather pattern continues in the short-term with temperatures continuing to fluctuate.

June outlook

For June, we expect slightly cooler than normal temperatures to persist until mid-month (-1 to 3F). Temperatures are likely to switch to above normal for the second half of the month (+1 to +4F). Confidence in this is medium to high.

Rainfall will be much more variable and scattered ranging from 0.50 inches to over 3 inches through June 20th (see attached rainfall forecast map for the next two weeks) You can also see this on the NOAA NWS Ohio River Forecast Center webpage at:

https://www.weather.gov/images/ohrfc/dynamic/NAEFS16.apcp.mean.total.png

Normal is about 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Confidence on where it will be drier or wetter is low as thunderstorms will drive the details of the outcome.

Rest of growing season outlook

The outlook for July is for a warmer month with rainfall near normal (but the normal rainfall will be made up of anything but normal). Most areas will either be above or below normal rainfall in July but as a statewide average near normal is anticipated.

The warmer weather will persist into August with a trend toward normal or below normal rainfall. The question will be the preferred tropical track of tropical systems. Currently, most climate models indicate this will be from the Gulf of Mexico to the Southeast U.S. This will likely leave Ohio in the normal or possibly below normal precipitation category.

Fall harvest season

Early Indications for harvest season are for a warmer and drier than average pattern with low chances for early freezes.

Flood risk Maps

The NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center generates ensembles of potential river conditions which can be helpful to the agricultural industry with lowland crops. You can see the 10-day river flood potential maps here:

https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs?Lat=39&Lon=-84&Zoom=6

Check Also

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