Happy Independence Day! We see another round of warm, sunny and dry weather today over the entire state, so we are not able to declare our independence from flash drought just yet! However, we are looking at the potential for some showers tomorrow, and a good chunk of the rest of the week looks unsettled. Overnight tonight, a frontal system starts to work into far north and NW Ohio, tracking southeast through tomorrow. This will bring rain potential from after midnight tonight through sunrise Wednesday morning of .25″-1″ and coverage at 80%. The balance of Wednesday turns out partly sunny and dry again.
Temperatures remain warm and humidity values climb again late in the week for Thursday and Friday. This will promote heat based instability, and so we can see scattered showers and thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday, especially late afternoon into the overnight. Out of that moisture we can see an additional .25″-.75″ of rain with 75% coverage. Friday night into Saturday midday we are projecting an outbreak of strong storms that may have heavy rain potential. Rains can be half to 2″ with the heaviest potential in central OH. That makes most of Ohio pretty wet for the 4.5 day period from Tomorrow through Saturday midday. The map below shows rain potential for that period. Some areas may even generate complaints of too much rain if the Friday night system comes together as described.
Following this wet 4 and a half day run, we turn back dry with above normal temps and high evaporation from Saturday afternoon on through next Wednesday. So, right now it looks like feast or famine. Or more accurately – famine, feast and then famine again.