Soybean yields higher than expected in bearish report

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Following the noon report release, corn was down 8 cents, soybeans down 30 cents, and wheat down 25 cents. Prior to the report, corn was up 3 cents, soybeans up 15 cents, and wheat down 19 cents. 

Note that with this August report, NASS is no longer using farmer surveys to provide yield estimates. The corn and soybean yield estimates will be a best guess scenario by the World Outlook Board. The Annual Pro Farmer U.S. Midwest crop tour will take place in two weeks.

Weather continues to be a major market driver for the grains. The central and western Midwest have been among the dries areas of the cornbelt. During the past two weeks there have been multiple shifts in forecast expectations of warm and dry or frequent showers. The American and European weather models have sometimes detailed forecasts which are opposite of each other. With those often changing forecasts, daily price ranges for corn have reached 20 cents while soybean daily ranges have been in excess of 30 cents.

U.S. corn production was 14.359 billion bushels and a yield of 175.4 bushels per acres. U.S. soybean production was 4.531 billion bushels with a yield of 51.9 bushels per acre.

U.S. 2022-2023 ending stocks: corn 1.388 billion bushels, last month 1.47 billion bushels; soybeans 245 million bushels, last month 230 million bushels; and wheat 610 million bushels, last month 639 million bushels. 

Trader estimates for 2022-2023 US ending stocks: corn, 1.402 billion bushels; soybeans, 230 million bushels; and wheat, 650 million bushels. 

US 2021-2022 ending stocks: corn, 1.53 billion bushels, last month 1.510 billion bushels. Soybeans, 225 million bushels, last month 215 million bushels.  

Trader estimates for 2021-2022 US ending stocks: corn 1.512 billion bushels; soybeans 226  million bushels.  

USDA today projected China would be importing 90 million tons of world soybeans, last month was 90 million tons. China was a buyer of U.S. corn last week. In addition, they were buying wheat from the U.S., Canada, and Australia. 

Numerous fields across Ohio and other states experienced corn fields planted later than normal by as much as three weeks. It means producers will be most anxious for the first frost to be later than normal.

The drop in the July consumer price index (CPI) to 8.5% from the June CPI at 9.1%, has some thoughts that the US Fed with their September meeting, may increase interest rates just ½% and not 3/4%. 

Weekend weather forecasts will dominate grain price activity within minutes of this report being released.

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