Harvest weather outlook

By Jim Noel, NOAA

The September to November timeframe still looks warmer than normal, somewhat like last year but not as warm in September into October as last year with a medium to high confidence in the outlook. Rainfall looks generally close to normal through November. Confidence in the rainfall is not as high and is considered medium as there is some uncertainty in the preferred tropical moisture flow. Like last year the first freeze looks to be normal to later than normal in October.

For September, the first half looks slightly warmer and drier than normal. Uncertainty grows in the second half of September as it might turn wetter than normal. The second half will completely depend on tropical moisture return from the south. Therefore, a near normal rainfall pattern is currently anticipated when you average out the two September periods. 

For October and November above normal temperatures will persist with precipitation somewhat variable around normal with a slight lean toward drier than normal. It does not appear we will see any early freeze this autumn which is good news. Expect the first freeze about on time to a week or two later than normal in October.

The latest climate outlooks can be found by NOAA at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Finally, for the first half of September rainfall is forecast to average 1-2 inches which is not far from average.

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