Is $8 corn possible?

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC

The USDA Stocks Report surprised the market with less corn in storage than previously estimated. This could lead to a carryout that is the tightest since 2012, and values may need to exceed $8 again to ration demand. However, there are several unknown variables that could affect the market moving forward.


Demand seems to be weakening and it is still unclear by how much. The area of demand that is getting the most attention and concern is in the exports category. Currently, exports are expected to be 10% lower than last year and 20% lower than two years ago, when futures exceeded $8. Plus, the market seems to think exports could fall another 10%, which would be a little bit more than the amount found missing in the September stocks report.


The Russia-Ukraine situation still needs to be monitored closely. With Russia annexing 15% of Ukraine, western countries are applying more sanctions. The market will be watching to see if the current export corridor out of the Black Sea is closed off after November.

Mississippi River water levels

There is also concern over significant decreases in the Mississippi River’s water level. New record low levels may be hit, which would lower the amount of corn that can be exported over the next couple of months. This could impact total export pace next year if it continues.

Slowing global economy

As the world economy slows down, corn demand everywhere may be impacted. With a U.S. dollar at the strongest levels in 20 years it means U.S. commodities have trouble competing on the world stage.


Ethanol grind may be slowing due to decreased gasoline usage from a slowing economy.


The final average U.S. yield is still uncertain and could move in either direction. Focus will then shift to South America as the market looks for any production issues in their next crop from the elevated chances of a third year La Niña. 


Corn prices have been impacted by a lot of negative news already. As harvest continues, there may be some additional downside pressure. However, once the bins are filled and doors are locked, it may be difficult to pry corn out of farmers’ hands at current price levels.

Please email with any questions or to learn more. Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, NE. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans and other grains for the last 18 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 10 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.

Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision. The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative. The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

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