Market factors to watch in November

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC

There are rumors circulating that China will relax COVID protocols in early 2023, which the market thinks will lead to a fresh round of commodity buying. This, combined with continued Chinese soybean purchases and export pace running slightly above USDA estimates, is giving beans some upside momentum.

Corn export pace long term continues to be a concern but hope rests with the feed category being able to make up the difference. Western basis values suggest corn futures are undervalued while the eastern market indicates the opposite.

The market continues to watch the Black Sea for more understanding of export capacity potential. The market rallied quickly when the door seemed to close, but then pulled back when it seemed to open again. War is difficult to predict, so this will be an area of risk in both directions moving forward.

There will be another USDA report on Nov. 9, but it is unlikely to change the market much. Barring any surprise changes to supply or demand should mean a continuation of its recent trading pattern.

November is usually a quiet time for the markets. It falls after the U.S. harvest is mostly over and before the weather in South America has a big impact on production, which will start at the end of December.

Please email with any questions or to learn more. Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, NE. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans and other grains for the last 18 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 10 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.

Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision. The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative. The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Check Also

206 Bushel per acre soybeans at CTC 24

By Mark Badertscher, Randall Reeder, Adapted from C.O.R.N 2024-04 The Conservation Tillage & Technology Conference …

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *