USDA numbers neutral for December

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

U.S. numbers highlights: corn exports down 75 million bushels, corn ending stocks up 75 million bushels.

World numbers highlights: Brazil soybean production unchanged. Brazil corn production unchanged. Russia wheat production unchanged. 

Following the noon report release, corn was up 1 cent, soybeans down 5 cents, and wheat down 6 cents. Prior to the report, corn was up 3 cents, soybeans down 2 cents, and wheat down 6 cents. 

Typically the December WASDE Report does not see changes from the November WASDE Report for U.S. corn and soybean production and yields. Last month U.S. corn production was 13.930 billion bushels with a yield of 172.3. Last month U.S. soybean production was 4.346 billion bushels with a yield of 50.2 bushels. 

U.S. 2022-2023 ending stocks: corn 1.257 billion bushels, last month 1.182 billion bushels; soybeans 220  million bushels, last month 220 million bushels; and wheat 571 million bushels, last month 571 million bushels. 

Trader estimates for 2022-2023 US ending stocks: corn 1.237 billion bushels; soybeans 238 million bushels; and wheat 576 million bushels. 

USDA projected China would be importing 98 million tons of soybeans during the current marketing year from September to August. Last month was 98 million tons. 

CONAB, Brazil’s USDA equivalent, reports that soybean acres are up 5%. This year marks the 16^th consecutive year for soybean acres to increase. 

The weekly U.S. Grain Sales Report from yesterday detailed 63 million bushels of US soybeans were sold. Sales to China and unknown destinations were 30 million bushels. 

In recent days, Argentina farmers had the option to sell soybeans during the second round of the preferred exchange rate program. During the first round of the preferred exchange rate program in September, Argentina farmers sold 5 million tons of soybeans to the Argentina government. Their farmers are receiving 230 pesos to the dollar when the current exchange is 165 pesos to the dollar. They receive a premium amount of pesos to help offset steep inflation rates in Argentina as the government buys the soybeans for crushing into soymeal and soyoil. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soymeal. Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of soybeans. 

U.S. corn exports were each expected to be reduced 50 million to 100 million bushels with ending stocks to increase. Corn fed to livestock and corn used for ethanol production was expected to be unchanged. U.S. corn exports to date are 249 million bushels, last year at this time 370 million bushels, a 32% decline. U.S. soybean exports to date are 778 million bushels, last year at this time 873 million bushels, a decline of 10%. U.S. corn exports were reduced 125 million bushels in October and 100 million bushels in September. U.S. soybean exports were reduced 40 million bushels in October and 70 million bushels in September. 

COVID protests in China have been in the news the past two weeks. Often the news videos detailed protestors being carried away to awaiting police vans but not to worry, masks were worn. Its citizens are most frustrated and worn out with the continued lockdowns of numerous cities. Lockdown were often quickly implemented, and at times with only a few COVID cases.

Ohio’s producers are wrapping up corn and soybean harvest reports for crop insurance. The deadline to report crop losses is Dec. 15 or 60 days after harvest, whichever is earliest. Multiple times in recent weeks customers have commented of the need to rest up and get caught up. Here’s why. The fall harvest for many was 6 weeks long with just 2 rain events. It was a whirlwind of activity which will serve as a benchmark for comparison in coming years.  

South America weather will continue to dominate the news. In recent weeks, Argentina has received less rain than Brazil. Central and northern Brazil have received normal to above normal rains the past month. Traders were looking for soybean production in Brazil to increase from the November estimate of 152 million tons. 

Merry Christmas!