By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile
This month’s USDA WASDE Report tends to be benign. Grains were higher in the overnight at the 8:45 am pause with soybeans up 10 cents, corn up 1 cent, and wheat up 2 cents as traders reacted to overnight news headlines. Mid-morning soybeans were unchanged.
The phrase for the day, “not working,” was coined as we slept last night. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said that the Ukraine Grain Corridor was not working properly as western nations, mainly the EU, are getting too much grain. Russia continues to complain that Ukraine grain is not moving to the world’s neediest in Central Africa or SE Asia. In a mostly sarcastic tone, it appears Russia is complaining about the solution they helped engineer and agreed upon, to a problem they created.
U.S. numbers highlights: U.S. corn exports unchanged, corn for ethanol down 25 million bushels. U.S. corn ending stocks up 25 million bushels. U.S. soybean crush down 15 million bushels.
World numbers highlights: Brazil soybean production 153 million tons, unchanged. Brazil corn at 125 million tons, unchanged. Argentina soybean production 41.5 million tons, down 4.5 million tons.
Following the noon report release, corn was up 1 cent, soybeans down 2 cents, and wheat up 4 cents. Prior to the report, corn was up 2 cents, soybeans up 7 cents, and wheat up 9 cents.
US 2022-2023 ending stocks: corn 1.267 billion bushels, last month 1.242 billion bushels; soybeans 225 million bushels, last month 210 million bushels; and wheat 568 million bushels, last month 567 million bushels.
Trader estimates for 2022-2023 US ending stocks were corn 1.266 billion bushels; soybeans 211 million bushels; and wheat 576 million bushels.
USDA today projected China would be importing 96 million tons of soybeans during the current marketing year from September to August. Last month was 96 million tons.
U.S. corn exports were each expected to be reduced 25-50 million bushels with ending stocks to increase. No cuts were expected in corn for ethanol or US soybeans exports.
March 2023 CBOT corn continues to be in a $6.50-$6.85 trading range. March 2023 CBOT soybeans have a high for the year at $15.48 ½. That number will be difficult to eclipse in coming weeks as the Brazil soybean harvest is underway with record production expected. Dry conditions still exist in Argentina with rains expected in the next week. Reduced soybean production in Argentina due to their drought will easily be replaced with the greatly improved Brazil soybean production compared to last year.
Corn basis in central Ohio is under pressure with lots of corn moving in the first 5 weeks of the year.
Don’t forget that the crop insurance prices for corn and soybeans are averaged during February. As of last night, the average price to date for corn is $5.96 with soybeans at $13.68. March 15 is the last day to make any changes for this year’s corn and soybean coverage levels. In addition, producers will need to get with their FSA office to make final selections for any ARC or PLC payments made as part of the current Farm Bill.