Planting intentions surveys compared to final report trends

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC 

The USDA released their stocks report Friday and confirmed what was already suspected, there is less corn in storage now compared to last year. This should mean downside in old crop corn prices is limited and US corn exports will be watched closely over the next three months.

Planting intentions surveys vs. final report trends

The USDA also released the producers planting intentions survey. It is important to keep in mind that this survey was conducted four weeks ago when prices were much higher for both corn and beans. Plus, the unpredictability of weather during planting can have a big impact in the number of acres actually planted.

Over the last 10 years, corn and bean acres were reduced in six years and increased in four years between the March planting intentions survey and the final planting report. In the years acres were reduced, two million fewer corn and bean acres each were planted on average. In the years acres increased, it averaged one million acres total for each crop.

Interestingly, there was only one year, 2014, when total corn acres dropped, and bean acres increased. In 2021 beans saw a reduction in acres while corn was higher. During the other eight years, if corn acres changed up OR down, beans had a gain or loss in the same year as well. This is contrary to what I would have expected if corn acres ran into planting issues.

Moving forward, the market will focus on planting conditions and export pace for price direction.

Please email jon@superiorfeed.com with any questions or to learn more. Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, NE. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans and other grains for the last 18 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 10 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.

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