Bullish wheat, neutral corn and soybeans

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

U.S. highlights: U.S. corn exports down 75 million bushels, U.S. corn ending stocks up 75 million bushels. U.S. soybean exports unchanged, crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks up 5 million bushels.

World highlights: Brazil soybean production 155 million tons, last month was 154 million tons. Brazil corn production 130 million tons, last month was 125 million tons. Argentina soybean production 27 million tons, last month was 27 million tons. Argentina corn production 37 million tons, last month was 37 million tons. USDA today projected China would be importing 98 million tons of soybeans during the current marketing year from September to August. Last month was 96 million tons. 

Following the noon USDA report release, corn was down 4 cents, soybeans up 1 cent, and wheat  up 18 cents. Prior to the report, corn was down 3 cents, soybeans down 4 cents, and wheat up 8 cents.

U.S. 2022-2023 ending stocks: corn 1.417 billion bushels, last month 1.342 billion bushels; soybeans 215 million bushels, last month 210 million bushels; and wheat 598 million bushels, last month 598 million bushels. 

Trader estimates for 2022-2023 ending stocks: corn 1.366 billion bushels; soybeans 212 million bushels; wheat 603 million bushels.

May is the first month for USDA to publish supply and demand tables for U.S. 2023-2024 crops. Ending stocks: corn 2.222 billion bushels, soybeans 335 million bushels, and wheat 556 million bushels. 

Trader estimates for 2023-2024 US ending stocks: were corn 2.094 billion bushels; soybeans 293 million bushels; and wheat 602 million bushels. 

U.S. corn exports were expected to be reduced 25-50 million bushels while soybean exports could be cut 10-20 million bushels. 

July 2023 CBOT corn the last two weeks has been in a $6.00 to $5.69 range. During the month of April, July 2023 CBOT corn had a high of $6.47 and a low of $5.72. Once it broke the $6 mark, it fell 28 cents in just two days. July 2023 CBOT soybeans the last two weeks has had a trading range of $14.47 to $13.85, eclipsing both the lows of March and April.

Planting activity around Ohio has been brisk this week with producers keeping an eye on the weather forecast for today. Rains are expected across Ohio today but mid-morning forecasts have rains arriving several hours later compared to the Thursday morning forecasts. Recent rains have U.S. drought areas in the hard red winter wheat shrinking in size. Weather forecasts for the Northern U.S. Plains indicate a cooler but dryer pattern which will allow corn and soybean plantings to continue. 

Negotiations to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) still have not succeeded in securing an agreement for Ukraine grain exports beyond the current end date of May 18. The U.S. delegation to the UN continues steadfast in their concerns that if the agreement is not extended, Russia’s action further weaponizes global food security.