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By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC
With the pressure to sell the market last week saw:
- Old Crop Corn — down around 30 cents
- New Crop Corn — down nearly 10 cents
- Old Crop Beans — down around 80 cents
- New Crop Beans — down nearly 50 cents.
China cancellations
China’s corn cancellations did not help the corn market. So, now the market is trying to figure out if there will be more.
South America
There are suggestions circulating of possible limited port capacity in Brazil due to a very large bean and sugar crop that needs to be exported first. With those crops being worth more per ton than corn it could mean less space available in the summer to load corn than the trade is currently expecting.
Weather
Most of the Corn Belt is experiencing good weather conditions. Therefore, the market is growing less concerned of any potential weather issues severely impacting yields. A change in forecasts could change market direction in a hurry.
Black Sea
The Black Sea export corridor was extended again. At this point it may not impact the market much anymore as it is believed that Ukraine is nearly out of old crop corn. While the threat of closure remains a possibility in the future, it is seeming less and less likely to occur.
Debt ceiling
Despite positive comments on Thursday by both sides of the political isle that a deal could be made, debt ceiling negotiations broke down on Friday. The threat of the U.S. not paying its debts would be catastrophic to the economy and makes some traders want to be sellers instead of buyers. While it seems most likely a deal will eventually be made, the market will be on edge until it happens.
Bottomline
A spark is needed for the current downward market trend to turnaround. Unfortunately, it is difficult to know what that will be or when it might occur.
Please email jon@superiorfeed.com with any questions or to learn more. Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, Neb. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans and other grains for the last 18 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 10 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.
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