Bullish beans, bearish corn in big June 30 report

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

USDA numbers today include US Quarterly Grain Stocks Report as of June 1 and US 2023 Planted Acres.  The quarterly stocks report will be the most watched report today.

US grain stocks: corn — 4.106 billion bushels; soybean stocks —  796 million bushels; and wheat stocks — 580 million bushels. US acres: corn —  94.1 million acres; soybeans —  83.5 million acres; and all wheat — 49.6 million acres.

Two big surprises today, corn acres at 94.1 million acres, bigger than expected, soybean acres 83.5 million acres, smaller than expected. At one point today, soybeans were up 80 cents.

Note: USDA reports today did not include supply and demand tables (WASDE) which is normal for the reports on June 30. The next WASDE report will be on July 12. That report likely includes U.S. corn exports declining at least 25 million bushels. However, don’t look for U.S. soybean exports to drop with that report.

Just after the noon report release, corn down 13 cents, soybeans up 69 cents, and wheat up 5 cents. Moments before noon, corn up 3 cents, soybeans up 25 cents, and wheat up 3 cents.

What’s next for the grains? Within the first 30 minutes following the noon release or even much less, the market will focus on rains throughout the Midwest along with the coverage those rains provide. Open interest in grains has dropped drastically this past week, as traders were exiting long positions from last week, adding even more to the wild volatility already seen the past few weeks. If grain stocks are sharply different compared to trader estimates it will lend to suggestions that 2022 corn or soybean yields could be revised later this year in September or October.

Grains will trade Sunday night, and the Monday day session, closing Monday night and Tuesday for the July Fourth holiday. 

National Weather Service 6-10 and 10-14 day forecasts point to above normal rains for much of the continental U.S.

Average trade estimates for June 1 grain stocks: corn — 4.255 billion bushels; soybeans — 812 million bushels; and wheat — 611 million bushels.  Last year at this time corn stocks were 4.349 billion bushels, soybean stocks 968 million bushels, and wheat stocks 698 million bushels.

Average trade estimates for US acres: corn — 91.853 million acres; soybeans — 87.673 million acres; all wheat — 49.656 million acres. Final 2022 planted acres were: corn, 88.6 million acres; soybeans, 87.5 million acres; wheat, 45.7 million acres.

Today marks the end of the week, month end, and the end of the second quarter.  

The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BGSI) ends on July 18. This program has allowed Ukraine grain exports since mid-August 2022. News report continue to indicate a strong thought that the BSGI will not be extended.

Grains have dropped significantly June 21. December CBOT corn closed that day at $6.28 3/4, up 31 ¼ cents, last night it closed at $5.28 ½, down 8 ¼ cents. November CBOT soybeans on June 21 closed at $13.77, up 34 ¼ cents, last night it closed at $12.65 ¾, up ¾ cent. The one dollar or more drop this week for corn and soybeans is a result of multiple weather models now agreeing that Midwest rain totals for the weekend and into next week are 1.5 to 3 inches.

Derecho winds moved across northern Missouri, southern Iowa, and central Illinois Thursday afternoon. Along with damaged crops there were large machinery buildings completely destroyed.

Wheat harvest is off to a slow start for central Ohio producers due to multiple cloudy days earlier this week. Early wheat harvest reports indicate some yields are 100 bushels or more per acre. Those same producers also suggest wheat yields will decline when they cut later planted fields.