July WASDE: Soybean and corn ending stocks bigger than expected

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

US highlights – Corn 2023 production 15.320 billion bushels and a yield at 177.5  bpa. Last month 15.265 billion bushels, yield of 181.5 bpa. Soybean 2023 production 4.3 billion bushels, last month 4.510 billion bushels. Note that the drop in US soybean production for 2023 is down significantly due to lower acres which were detailed with the June 30 Acreage Report.

More US highlights – US corn exports for 2022-2023 down 75 million bushels, corn for ethanol down 25 million bushels. US soybean exports for 2022-2023 down 20 million bushels, crush unchanged.  

World highlights – Brazil soybean production 156  million tons, last month was 156 million tons. Argentina soybean production 25 million tons, last month was 25 million tons. Brazil corn production 133  million tons, last month 132 million tons.

USDA today projected China would be importing 99 million tons of soybeans during the current marketing year from September to August. Last month was 98 million tons.

Following the noon USDA report release, corn was down 17 cents, soybeans down 32 cents, and wheat  down 25 cents. Prior to the report grains were mixed, corn was down 5 cents, soybeans up 10 cents, and wheat down 8 cents.

US 2023-2024 ending stocks: corn 2.362 billion bushels, last month 2.257 billion bushels; soybeans 300 million bushels, last month 350 million bushels; and wheat 580 million bushels, last month 562 million bushels.

Trader estimates for 2023-2024 US ending stocks: were corn 2.166 billion bushels; soybeans 206 million bushels; and wheat 565 million bushels.

US 2022-2023 ending stocks: corn 1.402 billion bushels, last month 1.452 billion bushels; soybeans 255 million bushels, last month 230 million bushels; and wheat 592 million bushels, last month 598 million bushels.

Trader estimates for 2022-2023 ending stocks: corn 1.406 billion bushels; soybeans 235 million bushels; wheat 583 million bushels.

US export reductions were expected for old corn, 75 million bushels; and old soybeans, 20 million bushels.    

Soybean strength today and the first two days of this trading week are a result of improving crush margins as well as soyoil being used to make biofuels.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) is scheduled to end of July 17. Despite numerous calls for an extension in the past month, the odds of that occurring are very slim. In addition, earlier this week Russia was targeting Ukraine grain export facilities in Odessa with drone attacks. Look for those attacks to continue and even intensify in coming days.

Weather in the central US Midwest will be a dominant feature the next two weeks as corn pollination picks up speed. To date, prolonged periods of excessive heat have been missing this year for most of the Midwest.

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