Neutral Aug. 11 USDA numbers

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

U.S. highlights — Corn 2023 production 15.111billion bushels, yield 175.1 bpa. Last month 15.32 billion bushels, yield of 177.5 bpa. Soybean 2023 production 4.205 billion bushels, last month 4.300 billion bushels, soybean yield 50.9 last month 51.3.  

More U.S. highlights – U.S. corn exports for 2022-2023 down 25 million bushels, corn for ethanol unchanged. US soybean exports for 2022-2023 unchanged. New corn exports down 50 million bushels, new soybean exports down 25 million bushels.   

Potential surprises with this report

Traders are expecting the U.S. corn yield to decrease two bushels per acre. Some are suggesting corn yields could be better than earlier projected and don’t jive with weekly crop conditions reports which are among the lowest since the 2012 drought year. Second, U.S. soybean acres could be increasing as some thoughts indicate that the USDA big decline of 4 million acres compared to trader estimates on the June 30 Acreage Report may not be accurate. November soybeans with that June 30 report were up 77 cents for that day.      

Following the noon USDA report release, corn was up 1 cent, soybeans unchanged, and wheat  down 8 cents. Prior to the report, corn was up 1 cent, soybeans down 11 cents, and wheat down 5 cents.

US 2023-2024 ending stocks: corn 2.202 billion bushels, last month 2.262 billion bushels; soybeans 245 million bushels, last month 300 million bushels; and wheat 615 million bushels, last month 592 million bushels. 

Trader estimates for 2023-2024 US ending stocks: were corn 2.168 billion bushels; soybeans 267 million bushels; and wheat 598 million bushels. 

US 2022-2023 ending stocks: corn 1.457 billion bushels, last month 1.402 billion bushels; soybeans 260 million bushels, last month 255 million bushels; and wheat  million bushels, last month 580 million bushels. 

Trader estimates for 2022-2023 ending stocks: corn 1.410 billion bushels; soybeans 251 million bushels. .

Mid-morning, November 2023 soybeans were $13.10, down 8 cents from last night. December CBOT 2023 corn was $4.95, down 1 cent from last night. Both corn and soybeans have taken a big hit from the July highs. November soybeans on July 24 made a new high for the year at $14.35. This morning soybeans were down $1.25 from its July high. December corn in July had a high at $5.72. Corn this morning was down 77 cents from its July high.

Fungicide applications the past month were common in parts of Ohio for both corn and soybeans. This year, the use of drones for those applications picked up dramatically. Producers greatly appreciate their versatility as they reach corners of fields or close to tree lines which other aerial applications cannot often reach with great accuracy. 

Volume at the CBOT has been extremely light at times this summer, especially in the days preceding USDA reports. 

Brazil’s soybean production experienced another record setting year. Their new crop planting season will begin in September and October with early indications of acres increasing 2% to 4% compared to this year.

Look for grain markets to move away from U.S. weather conditions and rain events in the weeks ahead. Focus will shift to production problems in other countries, shifting away from the heavy focus on U.S. weather the past two months. For example, India, has already proclaimed rice exports will be zero, when instead in past years they have been the world’s largest exporter of rice.

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