No surprises from USDA Sept. 12 numbers

By Bennett Musselman, Leist Mercantile

U.S. highlights — Corn 2023 production 15.100 billion bushels and a yield at 173.8  bushels per acre (bpa). Last month 15.111 billion bushels, yield of 175.1 bpa. Soybean 2023 production 4.1 billion bushels, last month 4.205 billion bushels. 

Even though USDA lowered the national yield by 1.3 bpa, total production did not decrease as expected. USDA increase harvested area for grain by 0.8 million acres. Additionally USDA also increased harvested acres on soybeans by 0.1 million acres. Soybean crush forecast is reduced 10 million bushels and export forecast is reduced by 35 million from last month due to lower supplies.  

Following the noon USDA report release, corn was down 8 cents, soybeans down 11 cents, and wheat down 2 cents. 

US 2023-2024 ending stocks: corn 2.221 billion bushels, last month 2.202 billion bushels; soybeans 220 million bushels, last month 245 million bushels; and wheat unchanged

Trader estimates for 2023-2024 US ending stocks: were corn 2.140 billion bushels; soybeans 207 million bushels; and wheat 613 million bushels.

US 2022-2023 ending stocks: corn 1.452 billion bushels, last month 1.457 billion bushels; and soybeans 250 million bushels, last month 260 million bushels.

Trader estimates for 2022-2023 ending stocks: corn 1.460 billion bushels; soybeans 255 million bushels; 

Early harvest reports from the western Corn Belt have been lower yields than expected for corn. Extreme variability with large yield swings have been reported as the combine roll through the fields. Some local elevators are needing corn and have enticed a few farmers here locally to get the combines fired up. Harvest season is officially here. 

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