Friendly report, corn and soybean yields less than expected

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

U.S. highlights — Corn 2023 production 15.064 billion bushels, yield 173 bushel per acre (bpa), last month 15.134 billion bushels, yield of 173.8 bpa. Soybean 2023 production 4.104 billion bushels, yield 49.6 bpa, last month 4.146 billion bushels, yield 50.1. 

Additional U.S. highlights — U.S. corn exports for 2023-2024 2.025 billion bushels, corn exports down 25 million bushel, corn for ethanol unchanged. U.S. soybean exports for 2023-2024 1.755 billion bushels, down 35 million bushels, soybean crush up 10 million bushels.    

Following the noon USDA report release, corn was up 5 cents, soybeans up 22 cents, and wheat   up 6 cents. Moments before the report was released, corn was down 4 cents, soybeans up 2 cents, and wheat down 5 cents.

US 2023-2024 ending stocks: corn 2.111 billion bushels, last month 2.221 billion bushels; soybeans 220 million bushels, last month 220 million bushels; and wheat 670 million bushels, last month 615 million bushels.

Trader estimates for 2023-2024 US ending stocks: corn 2.138 billion bushels; soybeans 233 million bushels; and wheat 647 million bushels.

Mid-morning at the 8:45 am CBOT pause, November 2023 soybeans were $12.59, up 6 cents from last night. Yesterday, soybeans closed below critical support at $12.56 – $12.60. December CBOT 2023 corn this morning at the pause was $4.88, unchanged from Wednesday.

The U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to vote on a new House Speaker in the next few days. That half of Congress may be momentarily forgetting that a pending budget crisis takes place mid-November. Votes on any legislation in the House cannot take place without a Speaker of the House in place. The longer it takes to install a new Speaker only lessens the available days to discuss and vote on spending appropriations. Drama into mid-November will continue to be at a fever pitch.

The National Weather Service reports that Mississippi River water levels in Memphis, Tennessee have reached record low levels this week. Any improvement of increasing water levels are lacking into the foreseeable future.

South America weather continues to experience extreme precipitation ranges. Southern Brazil is wet with expectations of reduced wheat production and quality. Central Brazil and Argentina are with dry with forecasts of better prospects for much needed rains the last half of October.

China has returned from their week-long holiday last week. Wednesday they purchased 121,000 tons or 4.4 million bushels of U.S. soybeans.

US soybean oil used in biofuel production has resulted in stout demand for months on end. Some are expecting US soybean exports to decline 25-40 million bushels while soybean crush increases a similar amount.

Brazil’s corn exports this month could reach 9.2 million tons (362 million bushels), up almost 50% from October 2022. Their corn export prices into December 2023 are barely below those from the U.S. China has been was the destination for the vast majority of Brazil’s corn exports. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 severely changed the landscape of world corn exporters when you grasp the reality that Brazil was not exporting a single boatload of corn to China until May 2022. Brazil’s strong corn export program is a major factor in U.S. corn exports dropping multiple times in 2023 with the monthly USDA WASDE (supply and demand) Reports.

Ohio’s soybean harvest pace has been furious the past 10 days. Corn harvest activity has been minimal with various reports of corn moisture higher than expected, slow to drop in spite of dry conditions and minimal rainfall the past 2-3 weeks.

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