Bearish soybeans due to higher production

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

US highlights – Corn 2023 production 15.234 billion bushels, last month 15.064 billion bushels, yield 174.9 bpa, last month 173.0 bpa. Soybean 2023 production 4.129 billion bushels, last month 4.104 billion bushels, yield 49.9 bpa, last month 49.6. 

Additional US highlights – US corn exports for 2023-2024 were actually up 50 million bushels, corn for ethanol was unchanged. US soybean exports for 2023-2024 were unchanged and crush was unchanged.     

Following the noon USDA report release, corn was down 8 cents, soybeans down 23 cents, and wheat down 15 cents. Moments before the report was released, corn was down 5 cents, soybeans down 11 cents, and wheat down 14 cents.

US 2023-2024 ending stocks: corn 2.156 billion bushels, last month 2.111 billion bushels; soybeans 245 million bushels, last month 220 million bushels; and wheat 684 million bushels, last month 670 million bushels.

Trader estimates for 2023-2024 US ending stocks: corn 2.129 billion bushels; soybeans 221 million bushels; and wheat 669 million bushels.

US corn and soybean exports for the marketing year beginning September 1st, have been disappointing. Corn export sales have been lackluster weeks longer than soybean export sales. Traders were looking for corn exports to be cut 50 million bushels, while soybean exports were expected to be reduced 25 million bushels. However, soybean crush was expected to increase slightly.

Brazil continues to see two vastly contrasting weather extremes taking place for at least the three weeks. That anomaly is a rare event. Southern Brazil has been wet for weeks as last week rain totals were 5-12 inches with flooding taking place in numerous locations. Central and northern Brazil has been dry for weeks, missing those frequent rains seen in the south. Soybean and corn plantings has been delayed due to those moisture extremes.

Yesterday, USDA reported soybean sales to China and unknown destinations totaling 909,000 tons or 33.4 million bushels. Mid-morning that same day, soybeans were up 22 cents on the highs of the day. Then shortly after 12 noon, profit taking took place on Brazil weather forecasts which increased rain potential in the dry regions for central and northern Brazil. Soybeans that day closed near the lows of the day, up just 3 ¾ cents.

Corn yield have been phenomenal for much of Ohio with many producers reporting corn yields of 200 bushels plus. Ohio’s grain facilities have been struggling by the sheer volume of wet corn they are receiving, often limiting inbound wet corn receiving hours, or even unable to receive any corn.

Spot crude oil yesterday was down $2 a barrel reaching a 4 month low. Concerns over slowing global economies, recession fears, with Middle East supply disruption not taking place in spite of the Israeli/Hamas war, all contributed to lower crude oil prices. Crude oil will struggle to reach the $88-$90 mark seen early October if Middle East supplies are not hampered into December.

Look for the markets to quickly return to focusing on South America weather as the main news feature for weeks yet to come.

Don’t be surprised to see Ohio’s corn harvest still underway at the Thanksgiving meal event.

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