We are dry for most of today, but clouds will be building this afternoon and especially this evening. Temps remain mild with strong southwest flow coming across the eastern corn belt. Evaporation looks good through the day, but will slow some this afternoon as clouds take over. We have a significant storm complex exiting the central/southern Plains today. The low is moving across Arkansas, and will then start to lift northeast over western TN and western KY. The track of this low allows for precipitation to kick off in Ohio before dawn Tuesday. Then rains will spread over the rest of the state through Tuesday, and will wind down before daybreak Wednesday in most areas. Rain totals are expected to be .25″-1″ with coverage at 90% of the state. The map below shows the evolution of the event. Temps will begin to cool as the moisture moves through tomorrow, but will not be initially as cold as concerns were last week for the period. We stay cool for all of Wednesday as clouds give way to sun.
Thanksgiving day Thursday will be seasonal with partly sunny skies. Then a reinforcing shot of cold air sags south out of the northern Plains and upper Midwest Friday through the weekend, triggering a move to slightly below normal temps. While we see some clouds with that move, precipitation likely only will be around on Friday and Friday evening. Moisture totals do not look impressive at only a few hundredths to a tenth or two liquid equivalent, but with temps, we may have to watch for some sloppy wet snowflakes, especially if any moisture lingers after sunset Friday night. The weekend will be mostly dry, with clouds and sunshine throughout.
Cold air stays over us next Monday through Wednesday, and in fact that stretch may be the coldest part of the air mass. Temps will be a bit below normal, but we should see sunshine through the period. At this time of year, sun helps, but our sun angle does not do an exceptional amount of work on warming us. The chill likely stays through the end of next week, but we do expect moderating temps fairly quickly as we move into December.