Corn prices likely to continue lower

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC

The corn market has been in a holding patten. The market is stuck between not knowing what weather will be like later this month and knowing a lot of old crop is being stored by farmers.

Where will prices go from here?

Historically, corn prices go down over the summer unless there are widespread drought conditions, which is rare. As I shared previously, in 11 of the last 15 years, the value of December corn in late November was lower than ANY value traded in the previous May or June.

In 2 of the 4 years when the market went higher after June, it was because the planted acres decreased in the June report from the March intentions report, which did not happen this year. In the other 2 years there were widespread dry conditions across the country, something that as of today is not occurring.

In reviewing corn prices over the last 15 years, there are three years that look most like 2024 at this point:

Screenshot

In each of these years, U.S. stocks had increased from the previous year and prices decreased over time. In 2009 and 2014 a new record national yield that was above trendline was hit, and in 2013 the national yield was only 2% below trendline.

So far, the low for 2024 was on June 28 when December corn was about $4.20. Based on a historical perspective, it is most likely corn prices will continue to go down until and possibly through harvest without a big weather event.

Weather

Forecasts for the most critical weather window become clearer in the next couple of weeks. With the number of acres planted and widespread timely rains so far this year, it seems likely the final national yield will be near trendline and there is a chance it could even be above.

Old crop cecomes an anchor

The biggest obstacle for December corn prices is the amount of unpriced old crop still in storage. I suspect farmers with grain still in the bin will move the balance of the 2023 crop over the next 60 days. I believe the selling will start slowly, and if weather remains normal over the next two weeks, this pace will increase as August approaches. This could lead to lower prices over the next two months.

What about the flooding?

There has been a lot of talk of flooding and lost acres. Only about 10% of the Corn Belt has been hit with heavy rains. While some low-lying acres in those areas have been lost, it is nowhere close to all of them.

If 10% of the areas with heavy rain have been lost, which I think is a stretch, that is only 1% of the total planted crop or around 900,000 acres. Some areas that received 8 inches or more of rain last month could have nitrogen loss, which would be like having yields that experienced mild drought conditions.

But timely rains throughout the rest of the U.S. can easily make up for any losses in the areas experiencing too much precipitation and would contribute to an increased national yield.

But the funds are really short…

Yes, they are. However, farmers are way behind on sales, so the two can offset each other.

Bottomline

Farmers that are behind on old crop and new crop sales are facing an uphill battle. So far, forecasts are suggesting normal July weather, with widespread drought conditions becoming less and less likely. Until the old crop has been sold and shipped, it seems unlikely the lows are in yet for the year.

Please email jon@superiorfeed.com with any questions or to learn more. Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, Neb. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans and other grains for the last 18 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 10 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.

Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision. The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative. The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Check Also

Bearish numbers from USDA June 28

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile Report highlights: Both corn acres and stocks higher than expected, …

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *