Key highlights of the September WASDE Report

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

The September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report today included farm surveys along with soybean pod counts and corn ear weights. A few key points:
•Brazil corn production up 3 million tons.
• U.S. harvested corn acres up 1.3 million acres.
• U.S. corn exports up 100 million bushels, ethanol unchanged.
• U.S. soybean exports cut 20 million bushels, soybean crush up 15 million bushels.
• U.S. corn production was pegged at 16.814 billion bushels, up from 16.742 billion last month and above the trade estimate of 16.516 billion.
• U.S. soybean production was estimated at 4.301 billion bushels, compared to 4.292 billion last month and 4.271 billion bushels expected by traders.
• U.S. corn yield was 186.7 bushels per acre, slightly below last month’s 188.8 but just above the 186.2 trader estimate.
• U.S. soybean yield was 53.5 bushels per acre, compared to 53.6 last month and the 53.3 trade estimate.

For the 2025-26 marketing year, U.S. ending stocks were reported as follows:
• Corn at 2.11 billion bushels, nearly unchanged from 2.117 billion last month, but above the 2.011 billion trade estimate.
• Soybeans at 300 million bushels, up from 290 million last month, and above the 288 million bushels traders expected.

After the report was released, corn was down 1 cent, soybeans up 3 cents, and wheat down 4 cents. Prior to the noon report, corn was up 4 cents, soybeans up 8 cents, and wheat down 2 cents. 

Looking at South America’s 2024-25 production, Argentina’s soybean production was estimated at 50.9 million tons, last month was 50.9 million tons. Argentina’s corn production was estimated at 50.0 million tons, and last month it was 50 million tons. Brazil’s soybean production was estimated at 169 million tons, and last month it was 169 million tons. Brazil’s corn production was estimated at 135.0 million tons, and last month it was 132 million tons.

Both corn and soybeans remain in bear market mode, but in two vastly different bearish scenarios. Corn is a “supply bear,” due to record U.S. corn production and yields. Note that U.S. corn exports are strong, increasing with seven WASDE reports in the 2024-25 marketing year. Many expect that the strong corn export picture will continue into the new crop marketing year, which began on September 1.

Soybeans are in a “demand bear,” due to huge demand concerns for U.S. exports. China remains determined not to buy U.S. soybeans due to tariff concerns. China is filling the cupboards to the gills with soybean imports from Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. In August, they imported 12 million tons of world soybeans, two million tons more than expected. Make no mistake, it’s a determined effort to avoid purchasing U.S. soybeans entirely. To date, for the new crop soybean marketing year, they have not purchased anything. It’s a sharp contrast to recent years, when they have already purchased at least 10 million tons or 370 million bushels at the September start of the 12-month marketing year.

In recent weeks, private analysts have detailed that U.S. soybean exports could be as much as 260 million bushels too high. U.S. ending stocks would be considered tight if they decline below 250 million bushels. Now throw in the potential drag of soybean exports declining dramatically, and you are likely to push U.S. soybean ending stocks above 500 million bushels. Ending stocks above 550 million bushels paint a vastly different price structure, which could send the front number to an $8 mark.

Corn harvest has started in Pickaway County, with yields of 200 bushels plus being reported.

Expect harvest activity to quickly become the main price driver for corn and soybeans by the end of September. Demand news can pop at any time, and the president can even tweet in the middle of the night….again.

President Trump desperately needs to showcase a win for U.S. agriculture soon. I don’t know how that becomes reality when viewing the alarmingly disappointing trade picture with China. One might argue that some kind of aid or check to farmers could be placed prior to the end of the first quarter of 2026. It’s solely my hunch based on nothing else.