Government shutdowns and soybean concerns

By Doug Tenney

“Get yourself in a comfortable position,” reminded our yoga instructor.

“But I’m doing yoga, and all of this is uncomfortable,” was my immediate thought. I realized I was not built for this activity, which followed a 50-mile morning ride with friends as we cycled in Tennessee.

I glanced at the women I had been riding with, who talked me into that yoga session. They were not struggling; instead, they were deeply focused in their yoga session—just as producers are entrenched in all their efforts and activities to harvest this year’s corn and soybeans efficiently before the potential of any prolonged rain.

The U.S. government shutdown began on Oct. 1 as Congress failed to pass a budget resolution. It meant the cash drawer was empty, and Congress needed to fill the till again. When is Congress going to pass a real budget and quit playing all the games that accompany their silliness? I would expect the shutdown to last for several days, which could turn into several weeks. The last and longest U.S. government shutdown took place during President Trump’s first term, from Dec. 22, 2018, to Jan. 25, 2019.

The next WASDE report (supply and demand) was scheduled for Oct. 9. At this writing, I would not expect that report to be published—nor would I expect a delayed report if the shutdown ends. Typically, USDA collects field samples for this report during the first five business days of the month. NASS personnel, along with FSA personnel, are among those affected by office closures due to the funding impasse.

Earlier this month, on Oct. 1, President Trump posted on Truth Social that U.S. soybean farmers are being hurt by China’s tariff negotiation tactics. It’s easy to respond with a simple phrase: They are. Within 30 minutes, soybeans moved from down 6 cents midmorning to an intraday high of up 18 cents and closed 11 cents higher for the day. An August post by Trump on the same platform challenged China’s President Xi to quadruple purchases of U.S. soybeans.

Here’s a simple fact that garners immediate attention and bears repeating from previous columns: With all the tariff chaos and confusion that has been brewing for months, China has not purchased a single bushel of U.S. soybeans since June. That also means China has not purchased a single bushel of new-crop soybeans for the 2025-26 marketing year, which runs from Sept. 1, 2025, to Aug. 31, 2026. In the past five years, China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans have been at least 10 million tons, or 367 million bushels.

A review of the September WASDE report details that U.S. soybean production for 2025 is estimated at 4.301 billion bushels, with a yield of 53.5 bushels per acre. Harvested acres increased slightly to 80.3 million. U.S. soybean exports for the 2025-26 marketing year were estimated at 1.685 billion bushels, down 190 million from last year. The major concern now is that exports could be 250 million bushels or more too high.

In the last few days of September, Argentina sold 42 boatloads of December soybeans to China. During that same period, China was buying soybeans from Brazil for April delivery. In previous years, China bought U.S. soybeans for delivery from September through January. China is already buying soybeans for December delivery and beyond. The window for U.S. soybean shipments to China is rapidly closing, with fewer than two months remaining to replicate past U.S. deliveries.

The Sept. 30 U.S. Grain Stocks report revealed that corn stocks as of the conclusion of the 2024-25 marketing year, which ended Aug. 31, were 1.553 billion bushels—193 million above the average trade estimate and higher than the top of trade expectations.

A late September cycling ride near Amanda, Ohio, in Fairfield County, revealed a common occurrence this fall across Ohio. Soybeans were being harvested amid huge clouds of dust; one could not see the combine, nor tell whether it was coming toward or moving away.

A little humor in light of the Oct. 1 government shutdown:
Overheard at the Bureau of Naturalization —
“Do you promise to support the Constitution of the United States?”
“Me? How could I? I’ve got a wife and six children to support.”
— Knox County Citizen, Fredericktown, Ohio, June 20, 1968