Internal demand reshapes Brazil’s corn market in the transition to the 2025-26 season

By Geraldo José Guimarães Isoldi, Agricultural Markets Specialist, Terra Investimentos

As another crop year comes to an end in Brazil, planting for the 2025-26 season is now underway in the Southern Hemisphere, while U.S. farmers wrap up their own harvests. Despite months marked by conflicting information and intense weather speculation, Brazil’s 2024-25 crop ultimately delivered a remarkably positive outcome.

Soybean production reached a record 171.48 million metric tons, harvested from 49 million hectares (121 million acres), with an average yield of 3,620 kg/ha (≈54 bushels per acre), according to CONAB (Brazil’s National Supply Company, the federal agency responsible for official crop estimates).

For corn, the results were even more surprising: Brazil harvested 141.1 million tons across 21.83 million hectares (54 million acres), with yields averaging 6,460 kg/ha (≈103 bushels per acre). Private estimates were slightly higher, averaging 142.4 million tons, with some forecasts, such as AgroConsult’s, reaching 150 million tons.

While soybean market dynamics remained relatively stable, corn commercialization proved to be one of the main challenges of the season. After months of uncertainty regarding weather and final production figures, combined with strong domestic demand, spot prices in São Paulo, the country’s largest consuming region, climbed to USD 15.96 per 60-kg bag on March 19. Prices then fell sharply, reaching USD 11.23/bag by mid-July, a drop of nearly 30%.

This decline, together with more attractive soybean prices, discouraged producers from selling corn. A slow upward correction followed, bringing prices back to around USD 12.73/bag by the second week of November.

At present, the market remains supported primarily by robust domestic demand, especially from corn-based ethanol plants in the states of Mato Grosso and Goiás. On the supply side, producers continue to limit sales. According to IMEA (the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics, the state’s official agricultural economics agency), as of November 10, 97.12% of Mato Grosso’s soybean crop had been marketed (close to the 5-year average of 98.54%), while only 81.1% of the state’s corn had been sold, below both last year’s pace (85.79%) and the historical average (86.99%).

Growing domestic consumption has provided steady, although slow, upward pressure on prices. What prevents stronger price action is the weak export performance. Delays in soybean planting late in 2024, critical because Brazil’s second corn crop (safrinha crop), which accounts for roughly 80% of national production, depends on soybean field turnover, combined with a stronger Brazilian real and competitive U.S. corn prices, placed Brazil’s export window (February to January) at risk.

Even so, with less than three months remaining in the crop year, market participants continue to monitor export volumes closely. By the first week of November, Brazil had shipped 27.38 million tons of corn, about 68.5% of CONAB’s 40-million-ton projection. The target remains achievable but will require stronger export flows in the coming weeks.

Soybeans maintain strong momentum
Soybeans continue to play a central role in Brazil’s agricultural landscape. By early November, the country had already exported 101.81 million tons, 95.5% of CONAB’s annual forecast and above the previous all-time record of 101.87 million tons set in 2022-23.

2025-26 season begins under familiar weather concerns
As is typical at this time of year, the new season begins under weather-related concerns. Irregular rainfall in key regions such as Mato Grosso and Goiás caused delays in soybean planting. Even so, fieldwork accelerated in early November. After the first week, CONAB reported that 58.4% of the national soybean area had been planted, compared to 66% at the same time in 2024 and 57% for the historical average.

Notable state-level progress:
São Paulo (3.4% of national output): 95% planted, above the historical average (82.6%) and identical to last year.
Mato Grosso (34.4%): 90% completed, in line with last season and slightly above the historical average (88.2%).
Goiás (13%): Only 43% planted — well below the historical average (51.4%) and far behind last year’s pace (71%).

For first-crop corn, which accounts for 19% of total production, planting reached 47.7% across the nine main producing states (representing 92% of the area). This is close to last year’s 48.7% and above the historical average of 45.5%. Paraná is nearly finished, while Goiás again lags well behind, with just 8% planted (vs. 14% in 2024 and 25% historically).

Initial outlook for 2025-26
CONAB’s early projections point to another large harvest:
Soybeans: 177.6 million tons on 49 million hectares (3,620 kg/ha).
Corn: 138.84 million tons on 22.72 million hectares (6,110 kg/ha).

In corn’s case, however, it is important to note that the crop extends through late August with the safrinha harvest. For now, the numbers represent a potential rather than a consolidated reality.

Domestic demand becomes a structural market driver
A structural trend warrants increasing attention: Brazil’s rapidly growing domestic corn demand. Driven by the expansion of the corn-ethanol industry and rising animal protein production, domestic consumption has increased 41% since 2019, climbing from 67 million tons to a projected 94.6 million tons by 2026.

New increases in domestic demand lie ahead. And while this trend encourages higher production and supports better farm-gate prices for Brazilian growers, it also reduces the country’s export potential and amplifies the impact of any future production losses, as seen in the 2020-21 season, when Brazil harvested only 87 million tons.

My name is Geraldo José Guimarães Isoldi, and it is a pleasure to continue contributing monthly with insights on the agricultural markets of Brazil and South America in my second season with the Ohio’s Country Journal. Feel free to reach out with questions, suggestions, or even just for a friendly conversation.

Email: geraldoisoldi@terrainvestimentos.com.br
Twitter/X: @KingKornBr
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/geraldo-isoldi-5072374b