Brazil Crop Update: Separating Headlines From Reality

By Geraldo José Guimarães Isoldi, Terra Investimentos

With February underway, one of the busiest periods in the Brazilian countryside begins. While some producers are moving quickly through soybean harvest, others are already planting the safrinha corn crop, our second corn season, which today accounts for the majority of Brazil’s total corn production.

Those of you in the Northern Hemisphere may be hearing reports about drought in Rio Grande do Sul while, at the same time, excessive rainfall is said to be disrupting soybean harvest in other parts of the country. Both are true. However, there’s an interesting phenomenon: the farther this news travels, the more confusion, or exaggeration, tends to creep in. Here in Brazil we call it telefone sem fio; you probably know it as the telephone game.

Southern Brazil is made up of three states: Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. Due to its geographic position, this region tends to experience more variable and often less predictable weather patterns than the rest of the country. Rio Grande do Sul, in particular, frequently shows climate behavior quite different from the Center-West and the Matopiba region (comprising the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia), which are Brazil’s main agricultural frontiers.

In recent years, the state has faced repeated weather challenges, sometimes excessive rainfall, but more often severe drought. Unlike Brazil’s Center-West, Rio Grande do Sul primarily produces first-crop corn, which competes directly with soybeans for acreage. This naturally limits its relative weight in Brazil’s total corn production.

Last season, for example, the state produced about 5.43 million metric tons of corn, roughly 3.9% of national output. Therefore, while weather-related losses can be significant locally, their impact on Brazil’s overall supply tends to be limited. That may help explain why CONAB, Brazil’s national crop agency, has adopted relatively conservative projections for the region. For the current season, estimates are essentially unchanged from last year, which was also affected by drought, contributing to the national projection of roughly 138.4 million metric tons in the latest report.

As for rainfall across the rest of the country, precipitation has indeed been frequent and, at times, has slowed soybean harvest progress. Still, overall advancement remains fairly solid. According to CONAB, as of the week ending February 7, about 17.4% of soybean acreage had been harvested, ahead of last year’s 14.8% for the same period, though slightly below the historical average of 18.7%.

There may be localized impacts on grain quality due to excess moisture, but regardless, the outlook for a record soybean crop remains quite firm. CONAB’s February report points to production near 178 million metric tons, and at this stage of the season, major downward revisions appear unlikely.

Paradoxically, excessive rainfall often creates greater concern for safrinha corn than for soybeans themselves. Since much of the second corn crop is planted immediately after soybean harvest, any delay shortens the optimal planting window. This can push critical crop development stages into periods of higher weather risk, particularly from April onward, when rainfall gradually declines and frost risk increases, especially in southern Mato Grosso do Sul and northern Paraná. Paraná alone is expected to account for about 8.3% of safrinha production, or roughly 16.9 million metric tons according to current projections.

CONAB’s latest crop progress report indicated that about 21.6% of the corn area had been planted as of February 7. That’s ahead of last year’s delayed pace (18.8%) but still below the five-year average of 25.5%.

Historically, planting delays raised serious concerns about productivity. However, technological advances, improved genetics, and better farm management have significantly reduced that direct correlation. Not surprisingly, two of Brazil’s largest corn crops in recent history, the 2022/23 and 2024/25 seasons, occurred in years that also experienced notable planting delays at various stages.

Overall, then, the current outlook for both corn and soybeans in Brazil can be considered positive. At this point, there’s nothing substantially different from the typical seasonal pattern. While excessive rainfall creates logistical and operational challenges, it also ensures excellent soil moisture conditions for the safrinha crop, which accounts for roughly 80% of Brazil’s total corn production. Another large crop, similar to last season’s, would not be surprising.

It’s worth recalling that CONAB’s first projection for the 2024/25 corn crop, released in October 2024, pointed to just 119.8 million metric tons amid severe planting delays caused by dry soil conditions. Later, abundant late-season rains allowed substantial crop recovery and record yields, particularly in Mato Grosso, ultimately resulting in a record harvest near 141 million metric tons. That represents a difference of more than 20 million metric tons between the initial estimate and the final outcome.

There’s still a long way to go before harvest wraps up in mid-year, and weather will naturally remain the key variable. But barring a major climatic event, expectations today point toward another full crop, potentially among the largest ever recorded in Brazil.

That said, record production does not necessarily translate into abundant supplies. Brazil’s rapidly expanding corn ethanol industry has been steadily increasing domestic consumption year after year. To illustrate, internal corn demand has risen from roughly 67 million metric tons in the 2019/20 season to an estimated 94.6 million metric tons for the current season, an increase of more than 40%.

In Mato Grosso, the heart of this industry, growth has been even more pronounced. According to IMEA, the state’s domestic corn consumption, which stood around 11.9 million metric tons in the 2021/22 season, could reach approximately 19.3 million metric tons by the 2025/26 season, nearly 60% growth in just a few years.

So even with potentially record harvests, the combination of rising domestic demand, expansion of corn ethanol production, and ongoing weather volatility means large crops do not automatically translate into comfortable surpluses. In other words, record production doesn’t always mean abundance, and that may be one of the most important dynamics to watch in Brazil right now.

My name is Geraldo José Guimarães Isoldi, and it is a great pleasure for me to contribute monthly with analyses of the agricultural market in Brazil and South America. Feel free to reach out with questions, suggestions, or even for a friendly chat: geraldoisoldi@terrainvestimentos.com.br