Shifting winds in global agriculture

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Last month, I attended a Joint Presidents Reception at the Pickaway County Fairgrounds’ Heritage Hall, an event recognizing two extraordinary Ohio farmer-leaders serving at the national level. Scott Metzger of Pickaway County currently serves as president of the American Soybean Association, while Jed Bower of neighboring Fayette County is president of the National Corn Growers Association. The fact that these two national leaders farm in adjoining Ohio counties is remarkable and speaks volumes about the depth of leadership within Ohio agriculture.

For decades, Ohio farmer-leaders have been at the forefront of advocacy on issues that directly affect farm sustainability, both in our state and across the country.

“Ohio farmers should be proud of having two national presidents from Ohio serving at the same time,” said Tadd Nicholson, executive director of the Ohio Corn & Wheat Growers Association.

It was a fitting reminder of Ohio’s continued influence in national agricultural policy conversations.

That sense of reflection carried into recent conversations sparked by winter weather. Where were you during the Ohio blizzard of Jan. 26, 1978? The 48th anniversary of that storm, combined with Storm Fern and the week that followed, prompted plenty of discussion among colleagues, family, friends, and customers. I remember that blizzard vividly. It occurred during my first job, just seven months after graduating from Ohio State.

The night before, forecasts warned of a massive storm system with blizzard conditions. At 2 a.m., I woke to the sound of heavy rain pounding on my apartment building in Columbus. Snow and wind seemed unlikely, and I remember sarcastically thinking, “Yeah, right.” A few hours later, I drove to work on an eerily empty stretch of Interstate 70. When I arrived, I was greeted with unexpected instructions: “What are you doing here in this winter storm? Go home!”

Calls to family back in Fredericktown and Knox County, just an hour north, painted a far different and much more severe picture than what I had seen in Columbus. Those conversations drove home how quickly conditions can change and how differently storms can impact communities just miles apart.

I suppose this dates me a bit, but at the time I was working in the Landmark Grain Division. Yes, Virginia, there once was a cooperative called Landmark. Decades ago, Landmark co-ops dotted nearly every Ohio county, providing grain, agronomy, and feed services to local farmers. It is a reminder of how much the ag landscape has changed over time.

This January’s snowstorm, which came with winter storm warnings several days in advance, was certainly significant in its own right. Much of Ohio south of I-70 received around a foot of snow, placing the storm among the top five snowfall events on record. Several locations ranked in the top three for January snowfall totals.

The cold that followed was equally notable. Wind chills across Ohio during the final week of January frequently dipped to 10 degrees below zero or colder. Those bone-chilling conditions served as a stark reminder that last fall’s Farmer’s Almanac predicted a winter that would be both colder and wetter than normal.

While weather captures our attention, broader global trends are reshaping agriculture in even more dramatic ways. It should come as no surprise that the United States’ role in global grain exports has declined sharply. Fifty years ago, the United States accounted for 52% of the world’s corn, soybean, and wheat exports. Today, that share has fallen to just 14%.

A major driver of this shift has been Brazil. During the past five decades, Brazil has brought millions of hectares of previously uncultivated land into production. For context, one hectare equals 2.47 acres. The scale of expansion is difficult to overstate.

In 1976, Brazil produced 460 million bushels of soybeans, or 12.52 million metric tons. By 2001, production had risen to 1.598 billion bushels, or 43.5 million tons — a threefold increase in just 25 years. Looking ahead to 2026, Brazil’s soybean production is expected to reach an astonishing 175 million tons. In the past quarter-century alone, production has quadrupled.

Compare that growth to the United States. In 1976, U.S. soybean production totaled 1.29 billion bushels. By 2025, it reached 4.253 billion bushels. While that growth is substantial, U.S. production has struggled to even triple over the same time period that Brazil surged ahead.

More discussion on South American soybean production — along with additional insights from the latest WASDE report — will be coming in future columns.

Until then, stay warm and stay safe during these winter months.

Thought for the day:
“Kindness is like snow — it beautifies everything it covers.” — Kahlil Gibran