Soybean trade with China remains at forefront of markets ahead of 2026 planting season

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Last month, I was texting a friend who is a John Deere garden tractor fan like me. Of course, we were texting each other right after the Jan. 24 and 25 snowstorms to see who had bragging rights of the highest snow accumulations. That winter snow event brought back numerous memories for many across Ohio. January 25 was the 48th anniversary of the huge Ohio blizzard in 1978. He had a foot in eastern Franklin County. I had slightly less snow in central Fairfield County. Then the discussion turned – “How many driveways did you plow out?” Both of us have a freakishly good time playing in the snow and clearing out driveways. He had five, I had six. Darrin said, “It’s all good, it’s called -seat time.” Yes, “seat time” will soon be upon us in the fast-paced event for Ohio and American farmers called “spring planting”. Bear in mind, your “seat time” in planting corn and soybeans will be dramatically higher than mine in plowing a few driveways.

Disappointing U.S. soybean exports have been in the news for months. The Oct. 30, 2025, agreement between President Trump and Chinese President Xi indicated China would buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans for the marketing year ending Aug. 31, 2026. The harsh consequences of China not buying a single bushel for three months reveal that U.S. soybean exports year to date are down 446 million bushels, or 34%, compared to last year.

Current trade estimates suggest that China has purchased 10 million tons for this marketing year. China, at times, will buy soybeans from the United States with the destination termed “unknown.” If you assume that all the purchases going to “unknown” destinations will indeed be shipped to China, then the 12 million tons have been reached. Keep in mind that sales cancellations are still possible. The total sold to China must be examined closely after actual shipments have occurred.

May 2026 CBOT corn has stabilized and not fallen out of bed beyond the bearish news of the Jan. 12 WASDE Report. U.S. 2025 corn harvested acres rose to 91.3 million, up 1.3 million acres. Meanwhile, corn acres planted reached 98.8 million, up 100,000 acres. In addition, the U.S. corn yield increased a half bushel to 186.5 bushels per acre. Production, yield, and harvested acres increased. Old news – yes. However, it continues to haunt corn producers, as corn’s severe difficulty to rally significantly persists despite the bearish news on Jan.12, with old corn down 23 cents.

Further study in the first six weeks of 2026 revealed anemic corn price action compared to soybeans. The lows for corn and soybeans both took place on Jan. 13. May 2026 CBOT corn was low at $4.26 ¼ and closed Feb. 13 at $4.42, up 15 ¾ cents. Meanwhile, May 2026 soybeans were low at $10.51 ¼ and closed Feb. 13 at $11.48 ½, up 97 ¼ cents.

Did you catch the soybean price action on Feb. 4? May 2026 CBOT soybeans had a daily range of 54 cents, up 27 ¾ cents. Why are violent higher prices combined with a huge daily range? Three simple words – “Trump, China, soybeans.” Mid-morning soybeans moved higher by an additional twenty cents in just five minutes. Soybeans reached epic trade proportions that day, setting a new volume record of 930,021 contracts, beating the previous record by more than 120,000 contracts.

President Trump that day was requesting China buy an additional 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans (294 million bushels), above the October 2025 agreement of 12 million tons (441 million bushels).

This column was completed in mid-February. The average period for corn and soybeans was all of February. As of Feb. 13, December 2026, CBOT corn had an average price of $4.59, while November 2026 soybeans had an average price of $10.98. Last year, the spring prices were corn at $4.70 and soybeans at $10.54. The February average price will be used for 2026 MPCI Revenue and Yield coverages.  

Many producers across Ohio and the United States are taking a hard look at the crop insurance coverage provided by ECO (Enhanced Coverage Option). It provides the opportunity to buy either 90% or 95% coverage based on county yields. Rates are down nearly 40% compared to three years ago. Losses would not be paid until June 2027 once county yields have been determined.

Thought for the day. “If we had no winter, the spring would not be so pleasant.” – Anne Bradstreet.