March WASDE: Flat report

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

The key points:

• No changes in U.S. corn demand with export and corn used for ethanol unchanged.
• U.S. soybean crush was up 5 million bushels, and soybean imports were up 5 million bushels.
• Net zero for U.S. soybeans.
• No change in corn, wheat, or soybean ending stocks in the United States.

After the report was released, corn was down 3 cents, soybeans up 7 cents, and wheat down 13 cents. Prior to the noon report, corn was down 5 cents, soybeans were up 5 cents, and wheat was down 15 cents.

U.S. ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year: U.S. corn ending stocks were 2.127 billion bushels. In February, corn ending stocks were 2.127 billion bushels. Traders anticipated possible changes in corn ending stocks, including an increase in U.S. corn exports. The average trader estimate was 2.136 billion bushels. U.S. soybean ending stocks were 350 million bushels. In February, soybean ending stocks were 350 million bushels. The average trade estimate was 344 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were 931 million bushels. In February, wheat ending stocks were 931 million bushels. The average trade estimate was 926 million bushels.

USDA projections for South America’s 2025-26 soybean and corn production: Brazil soybean production was estimated at 180 million tons. February was 180 million tons. Argentina’s soybean production was estimated at 48.0 million tons. February was 48.5 million tons. Brazil’s corn production was estimated at 132 million tons. February was 131 million tons. Argentina’s corn production was 52 million tons. February was 53 million tons.

March is a month full of USDA reports. Two USDA reports will take place on March 31: the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report and the Prospective Plantings Report. The next WASDE Report will be on April 9.

Expect lots of price volatility in the weeks ahead as long as the war effort against Iran continues. Yesterday, crude oil had a range of $38 from the high price to the low price. That movement set a record. Mid-afternoon Monday, President Trump announced that the war in Iran is almost over. That news put the energy complex with crude oil lower on the day. Today, crude oil is down $11.

Keep in mind this simple fact – Iran is not a grain exporter. The movement of grain from that country does not make it equal to Ukraine. Iran war news will NOT keep grains bullish for months on end. Crude oil during the Sunday pm session and into the wee hours of Monday saw significant volume of people buying back their short positions. Crude oil prices turned lower on Monday after President Trump announced the Iran war was almost over. Producers need to determine the price levels at which they would sell 2025 and 2026 bushels. Often, the daily highs during the night session are not duplicated during the day session. Price movement for the grains could easily see huge daily price ranges. The grains will continue their recent pattern for prices to trade based on the headlines. It’s just where we are currently.