A planting season defined by fertilizer prices

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

It’s springtime! It means early Saturday morning bike rides are the norm for Roger and me. In past years, weekend cycling breakfasts consisted of a concoction that my wife, Cindy, perfected. She appropriately called it, “Egg McCindy.” It was a toasted and buttered English muffin, a fried egg, a slice of American cheese, Cindy’s home-made strawberry jam, and bacon. Best eaten with strawberry jam running down your cheek! Cycling during those weekends involved getting up earlier than on working days. I could then meet Roger before sunrise for our cycling trips into Fairfield and Hocking counties. I can still hear Cindy ask, “And why are we getting up this early?” While not thrilled at the early hour, Cindy soon pegged that early morning wake-up call as “dark thirty.” It was interesting to hear from a farmer friend at church that connation was a new one for him. Here’s hoping for a successful corn and soybean planting season whenever your day begins.

It is clear that the United States’ war efforts have driven up fertilizer prices, now that the planting season is upon us. Not new news, but reality: Some fertilizer types are above $100 per ton since early March. A recent American Farm Bureau Federation survey reveals that 48% of Midwest farmers can’t afford fertilizer. Farmers in the southern United States region reported that 78% can’t afford fertilizer.

Numerous articles continue to raise concerns about escalating fertilizer prices and availability in the United States. Farmdoc Daily has analyzed that urea prices experienced a 42% increase compared to March 2025. In addition, many producers are already reconsidering application rates for nitrogen as they evaluate the risk and reward of lowering the amount of nitrogen applied and its new yield potential. “Cost savings” could easily be a new mantra for 2026.

The April 13 USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report detailed U.S. corn planted at 5%, last year was 4%, and the 5-year average at 4%. U.S. soybeans planted were 6%, last year was 2%, and the 5-year average was 2%.

Ohio fieldwork and planting activity increased significantly during the week of April 13. For many Ohio producers, the recent trend of planting soybeans before corn remains a strong agronomic practice for improving profits. Producers are striving to have soybean plants prepared to capture the high levels of sunlight during June and into August to capitalize on higher yields.  

U.S. corn exports with the April 13 Weekly U.S. Grain Inspections Report revealed shipments of 70.1 million bushels, while the previous week’s corn exports were 80.8 million bushels. To date, the United States has exported 1.977 billion bushels of corn, a 34% increase from the previous marketing year, September 1 to August 31. A year ago, corn exports totaled 1.476 billion bushels. Current USDA projections from the monthly WASDE Report project U.S. corn exports will reach 3.3 billion bushels. Yearly exports at the end of August 31, 2025, were 2.858 billion bushels.

It was disappointing to hear the April 15 interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in which he stated that U.S. planting efforts had reached 70% (not sure where that figure comes from) and that there was no need to worry about the availability of fertilizers needed for  farmers to grow their 2026 crops. He also noted that higher fertilizer prices could pose problems for South America this fall and be a concern for the U.S. spring planting season in 2027.

March 2026 NOPA soybean monthly soybean crush reached an impressive 226.161 million bushels despite being below the average trade guess of 229.978 million bushels. That number was up 8% from the February 2026 crush of 208.785 million bushels, while up 16% from the 194.551 million bushels crushed in March 2025. US soybean crush capacity has grown to record levels, as the strong demand for soyoil to make biofuel has prompted soybean processors to build new crushing facilities and expand existing facilities. At one point, four years ago, there were 23 planned soybean crushing expansions or new facilities to be built in the United States. Mid-April soybean crush margins reached three-and-a-half-year highs. At this writing, mid-summer margins are $2.50 to $2.80 per bushel. Those margins come at an ideal time with the expanded U.S. biofuels policy for soybeans.

Last year, the U.S. corn yield reached 186.5 bushels per acre. Given the significant potential for reduced nitrogen application this year, it seems highly unlikely that yield will be exceeded in 2026.

Thought for the day. “In the spring, at the end of the day, you should smell like dirt.” – Margaret Atwood.