Market Commentary for April 29, 2026

By Jon Scheve

As this chart shows, May corn has traded in a tight 30-cent range since last June. Prices are now about 20 cents above pre-war levels. While $4.50 has been acting as a magnet for prices, the question now is whether the surging wheat prices can push corn into a new trading range.

The May contract enters the delivery period today, which will make July the new lead month for traders. July corn has usually been in a tighter 20-cent range than May. The question is: will prices return to that range, or are they going to move into a higher range?

Beans

November beans are at the top of what has been a very range-bound market between $11.40 and $11.70 since mid-February.

Looking Forward

President Trump is scheduled to meet with President Xi of China in mid-May, and both sides have incentives to reach a deal. This suggests downside risk in corn and soybeans may be limited, but it doesn’t guarantee a rally.

The window to move significant volumes of old crop soybeans to China is nearly closed. South America has a large new crop available now, and U.S. carryout remains comfortable for both old and new crop, potentially.

Corn may have a different story. There are a few factors that could open the door for U.S. corn into China. First, late-season weather in China last year wasn’t ideal, which may have reduced their production. Second, prolonged disruptions to fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could significantly increase fertilizer costs in South America next year. That could reduce global corn acreage in 2027 and tighten the world’s long-term balance sheet. China and other world buyers of grain might be interested in scooping up some of our relatively inexpensive grain before a potential rally next year, should high-priced fertilizer values continue.

That said, the U.S. supply still matters. If the national yield is near trend, and planted acres aren’t cut by more than 2 million this spring, upside may be limited. Unfortunately, there will be little clarity on either of these issues until the June 30 report, as well as the September USDA reports.

Please email jon@schevegrain.com with any questions or to learn more. Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, Neb. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans, and other grains for the last 25 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 15 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential, and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.

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