May WASDE Report offers first glance at 2026 crop

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Traders and producers alike were anxious to see if ending stocks for 2025 corn and soybeans are a ditto of the April WASDE report. In the past, a WASDE Report with little changes from the previous month has been referred to as a “punt.” Did USDA “punt,” today?

Don’t forget that the Trump/Xi summit meeting will take place this week on Thursday and Friday. This week rumors are swirling that China is inquiring about buying US corn.  

Today, USDA detailed 2026 acres as follows: Corn 95.3 million acres, last year 98.8 million acres. Soybeans 84.7 million acres, last year 81.2 million acres. Wheat 43.8 million acres, last year 45.3 million acres.

Keep in mind that today USDA details their first WASDE Report for 2026 crops. It was very likely that USDA said ditto to the acres detailed within the February 2026 Outlook Forum. That report put 2026 acres as follows: Corn 94 million acres, last year 98.8 million acres (record U.S. acres). Soybeans 85.0 million acres, last year 81.2 million acres. Wheat 45.0 million acres, last year 45.3 million acres.

After the report was released, corn was up 4 cents, soybeans up 18 cents, and wheat up 34 cents. Prior to the noon report, corn was up 2 cents, soybeans up 5 cents, and wheat up 18 cents. 

U.S. ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year: U.S. corn ending stocks were 2.142  billion bushels. In April, corn ending stocks were 2.127 billion bushels. The average trader estimate was 2.128 billion bushels. U.S. soybean ending stocks were 340 million bushels. In April, soybean ending stocks were 350 million bushels. The average trade estimate was 345 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were 935 million bushels. In April, wheat ending stocks were 938 million bushels. The average trade estimate was 934 million bushels.

USDA projections for South America’s 2025-26 soybean and corn production: Brazil soybean production was estimated at 180 million tons. April was 180 million tons. Argentina soybean production was estimated at 48 million tons. April was 48.0 million tons. Brazil corn production was estimated at 135 million tons. April was 132 million tons. Argentina corn production was 59 million tons. April was 52 million tons.

On the first weekend in May, numerous areas across Ohio had frost. Concerns abounded plentifully that some of those planted soybean acres were stunted or killed. It would mean replanting could be necessary. If acres had to be replanted at this time it does not automatically translate into a yield reduction. Replant claims for those with crop insurance appear to be higher than normal.

Note the fast-changing reality of US farmers planting soybeans before corn. Earlier this month, numerous Ohio farmers even had 100% of their 2026 soybean acres planted while planted corn acres were zero, or near zero.

A quick look at grain prices reveals that March 2027 CBOT corn has a contract high of $5.1825. Just before the noon report it was $5.12. January 2027 CBOT soybeans have a contract high of $12.1425, just before the report it was $12.10.

An observation to remember. Producers understand the concept of fundamentals such as supply and demand numbers and weather. They have at least heard of “technical,” or charts. We are now in an arena of trading headlines and how fast are they distributed.  Better, yet are the headlines a reality or false?  It’s a time to remember, keep your head above water and stay in your lane.