Uneven planting, uncertain markets

By Doug Tenney

Last month, I visited with a fraternity brother at a memorial service for another friend. As often happens when two farmers get together, the conversation quickly turned to spring planting. He confidently said, “We are finishing up!”

That caught my attention. Based on what I knew, that didn’t quite add up. Southern Ohio farmers were already more than 80% planted, with some nearly finished a week earlier, but the northern half of the state, above Interstate 70, was lagging. And he farms near Findlay, nearly 100 miles north of Interstate 70, right in the middle of that slower progress.

It started to feel like a high-stakes poker hand. I went all in and said, “Your planting progress is less than 20%, right?”

He smiled, his shoulders dipping just a bit, and chuckled. “It’s near 10%.”

The U.S.–Iran war continues despite ongoing truce uncertainty. A U.S. naval blockade has yielded little success despite significant military presence, including at least one aircraft carrier and multiple support vessels. Foreign ships continue to pay ransom demands from Iran for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, including crude oil tankers headed to China.

Crude oil prices moved higher in the last few days of April. On Monday, April 27, unleaded gasoline prices in central Ohio ranged from $3.79 to $3.99. Yet, by the end of the day, they leaped significantly, ranging from $4.29 to $4.79. Additional gasoline retail price increases of 30 to 50 cents could take place by early June. At this writing, the truck stop a mile from my home had diesel prices at the pump were $6.20. It could reach $7 in the next 30 days.

The weekly EIA Energy Report provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration as of April 29 detailed several alarming factors for U.S. energy. Crude oil stocks were down 6.2 million barrels compared to the previous week. A small decline of 200,000 barrels was expected. Gasoline stocks were down 6.1 million barrels; a decline of 2.1 million barrels was expected. U.S. refinery capacity was 89.6%. A capacity of  90.1% had been expected. That same report shockingly detailed that U.S. crude oil exports reached 6.4 million barrels per day, a new record dating back to 1991. The energy stocks database also began in 1991.

Beginning May 1, new daily price limits for CBOT grains were established for the next six months into Oct. 31. Those limits are: corn 30 cents (old 30 cents); soybeans 85 cents, (old 70 cents); and wheat 45 cents (old 35 cents). The next six-month daily price limit change will take place Nov. 1.

Fertilizers needing to push U.S. corn and soybean production seem to be available this spring, with prices higher to sharply above those prices of last year. It would be likely that the intense application for higher priced nitrogen to push corn production higher will diminish this year due to cost saving efforts. Less nitrogen applied will have a lowering effect for the U.S. corn yield in 2026. Many are expecting the 2026 U.S. corn yield to be slightly below that of 2025 which was 186.5 bushels per acre. Fertilizer availability and higher costs will be problematic for South America plantings in their upcoming planting season in September as well as the U.S. spring planting season for 2027.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest meeting of April 28-29 resulted in zero changes for interest rates. The Fed will have five additional meetings in 2026, taking place in June, July, September, October, and December. I would expect zero rate cuts in 2026.

The two-month escalation of crude oil prices will continue to be a huge factor on the inflation front.

The first WASDE report for 2026 U.S. crops came out on May 12.

March 2027 CBOT corn reached $5.10 the last week of April, triggering some farmer selling.

Thought for the day. “There are no gardening mistakes, only experiments. – Janet Kilburn Phillips.