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By Aaron B. Wilson, Ohio State University
For months now we have heard terms in the popular media of the impending “Super El Niño” or even “Godzilla El Niño” to depict the climate cycle we have entered. But what does it really mean and perhaps more importantly, what does it mean for farmers? Back in June, OCJ’s Brianna Smith and I discussed these issues on the Ohio Ag Net Tv podcast. This is a review and an update on El Niño conditions and potential impacts across the region heading throughout the rest of 2026 and into 2027.
What is El Niño?
El Niño refers to an ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Its origins extend back centuries to Peruvian and Ecuadorian fishermen who noticed periods of abnormally warm water around Christmastime that greatly reduced fish catches. Later, scientists discovered its links to atmospheric circulation via the position of the jet stream, which has downwind effects on weather patterns in many areas of the globe. Here in the United States, it is strongly correlated with changes in winter weather patterns (Figure 1). Typically, a strong sub-tropical jet stream keeps an active storm track and cooler than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States, from central and southern California to Florida and the Carolinas. Warmer than normal conditions often prevail across the northern United States, as the polar jet stream is positioned across northeast Canada. In between these two jet streams, the Ohio Valley often experiences drier than normal conditions for January through March, with warmer than normal conditions across much of the northern United States. It is important to note however, that while these events can often give us hints of what to expect, there are other large scale climate factors that may become more dominant during various periods of the year that alter these expectations.
Current El Niño Conditions and future projection
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s update on Aug. 3, 2026, El Niño conditions are present with sea surface temperatures in the main Niño monitoring area of the Pacific Ocean reaching 1.5°C (2.7°F) above normal (Figure 2). The three-month average (April – June) is 0.5°C (0.9°F) above normal. More importantly, atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Niño — meaning that the ocean and atmosphere are working in tandem to affect weather patterns. One effect this time of year is strong westerly winds in the tropical Atlantic that often limits tropical cyclone development. The official forecast continues to call for a strengthening El Niño through the end of the year; with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027. There is also an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño (sea surface temperature anomalies of 2°C (3.6°F) developing by October-December.
Impacts
While winter is the main season of impacts from El Niño conditions, analysis of historical events show minor relationships to our summer weather. In June, we mentioned the possibility of a slightly cooler than normal summer and perhaps drier weather setting in later in the season. However, this summer season (June 1 – Aug. 3, 2026) has brought temperatures that are slightly above normal (1-2°F) with some periods of very warm and humid weather. Precipitation has been highly variable, with pockets of persistently dry conditions in northwest and northeast Ohio. Extremely heavy rain and plenty of severe weather have been experienced elsewhere.
Early indications from the Climate Prediction Center show conditions in September – November are more likely to bring warmer than average temperatures with no strong signals in precipitation. With dampened tropical Atlantic activity, our risk of a tropical system bringing heavy rain during autumn and alleviating any drought conditions is lower than usual. However, at the time of this writing in early August, 6–14-day forecasts show wetter than average conditions are likely through mid-August. If this comes to fruition, this could help mitigate any concerns we had for widespread late season drought on-set or deterioration over existing dry areas. Perhaps good news indeed for grain fill and completion ahead of harvest.
For more information on current conditions and to sign up for monthly and quarterly updates, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Dr. Aaron B. Wilson is an Associate Professor in the Department of Extension, Ag Weather and Climate Field Specialist in the College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences at Ohio State University. He is also the State Climatologist of Ohio and can be reached at wilson.1010@osu.edu.
