Plenty moving as harvest gets underway

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Last month I was cycling with a friend. Before we reached the halfway mark, we decided to bypass a longer route because daylight was shrinking. The miles flew by in a hot, humid evening with zero air movement. Despite that sticky weather, as we got closer to his home, we made another decision, this time adding miles back in. Crazy huh! We were soaked from the humidity. The twice-amended route got us back five minutes after the official sunset. I quickly remembered that a ride leader on a group ride calls that feat “leaving nothing on the table,” referring to daylight hours. Producers will be achieving that feat now, in reference to working long hours, dozens of times this fall, as some could still be harvesting in mid-November. Here’s to a safe, successful harvest season.  

On Tuesday, Sept. 1, December 2026, CBOT corn closed at $5.46, up 6.5 cents as it made fresh new contract highs for four consecutive days. November 2026 CBOT soybeans closed that day at $13.1775, up 29.75 cents. Those rallies were driven by shrinking ending stocks in both the United States and world supply-and-demand tables. Just weeks earlier on Aug. 14, when the Pro Farmer Crop tour was concluding, December corn closed at 4.8325, up 11.25 cents. November soybeans were $11.925, up 10.25 cents.

The Black Sea grain corridor continues to be in the news, with double-digit declines or advances seen in Chicago soft red winter wheat and Kansas City hard red winter wheat prices. Russia and Ukraine make up that corridor. Turkey’s President is once again helping with peace efforts to ensure timely wheat exports from both countries. In recent weeks Ukraine’s drones have crippled Russia’s crude oil refineries, reducing their production capacities by as much as 50%. In addition, Russia continues to bomb and reduce Ukraine’s grain export shipping capacities from its Black Sea shipping ports of Odesa. Ukraine’s sea ports once handled 90% of the country’s grain exports. It is now forced to move grain exports via the Danube River through ports in Reni and Izmail. Russia has also been attacking those same river ports,, creating major uncertainty for Ukraine’s grain export system and its ability to meet scheduled shipments for months into the future.  

Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter. A little-known fact is that Ukraine currently has the world’s largest drone manufacturer. A late-August announcement by Russian President Putin pushed peace negotiations to an abrupt halt, stating that war-ending efforts had abruptly vanished. Wheat prices quickly responded to that midday announcement with double-digit wheat gains.

During the first few days of September, it became clear that Ohio’s corn and soybean harvest would be delayed at least a week. Prolonged rain events across much of the state during mid-August were to blame. Stories continue to circulate that Ohio is seeing moldy corn ears in numerous regions. Corn stalk quality is also a huge concern. Producers will be most anxious for any moldy or damaged corn to make a quick exit to commercial grain facilities as quickly as possible.

A strengthening Super El Niño continues to create uncertainty for crop production in the United States and South America. The weather pattern, which has been forecast for months, is expected to gain intensity through the end of the year. September marks the beginning of soybean planting in Brazil and Argentina, where producers are closely watching weather conditions and elevated input costs. In recent years, Brazil has typically increased soybean hectares by 3% to 5% annually. Those gains are unlikely to realize this year.

Frustration with some of the Trump administration’s agricultural trade policies is also being heard from U.S. cattle producers. The administration’s decision to expand the tariff-rate quota for Argentine beef has drawn criticism from producers concerned about increasing imports while U.S. cattle supplies remain tight. A recent AgWeb article quoted cattle producers telling the administration to “stay out of our lane” and describing the beef import plan as a betrayal. The additional imports are intended to help meet strong U.S. demand for lean processing beef, but the move has added another point of contention for cattle producers already navigating a volatile market.

Finishing weather for U.S. crops continues to be disappointing. The Sept. 11 WASDE Report (supply and demand) was not yet available at the time of this column. Expect U.S. corn and soybean yields to be steady or even reduced with that report. Producers with on-farm grain storage will most likely keep their bins full and move as little grain as possible to town this fall harvest season.

Thought for the day. “That moment when you wake up, walk outside, smell the air, and say to yourself, ‘It’s harvest season.’” – Unknown.