2025-2026 South American Update

By Raphael Galo

For those following soybeans and corn in South America, the most important read right now is not just the size of the crop, but the speed at which that crop turns into available supply, shipments, and cash flow. Aggregate volume remains large, but the market has entered a phase in which weather, agronomic planting windows, quality, logistics, and geopolitics are driving price and margins much more forcefully in the short term. That is why volatility remains high even in a robust production environment: the focus has shifted away from “how much” and toward “how” and “when.”

In Brazil, official figures continue to confirm a large cycle. In CONAB’s fifth survey, total grain production was estimated at 353.4 million metric tons. Within that total, soybeans are projected at 177.985 million metric tons, and total corn at 138.448 million metric tons, with year-over-year recovery and a meaningful contribution from the second crop to the final outcome.… Continue reading

By Geraldo José Guimarães Isoldi, Terra Investimentos

With February underway, one of the busiest periods in the Brazilian countryside begins. While some producers are moving quickly through soybean harvest, others are already planting the safrinha corn crop, our second corn season, which today accounts for the majority of Brazil’s total corn production.

Those of you in the Northern Hemisphere may be hearing reports about drought in Rio Grande do Sul while, at the same time, excessive rainfall is said to be disrupting soybean harvest in other parts of the country. Both are true. However, there’s an interesting phenomenon: the farther this news travels, the more confusion, or exaggeration, tends to creep in. Here in Brazil we call it telefone sem fio; you probably know it as the telephone game.

Southern Brazil is made up of three states: Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. Due to its geographic position, this region tends to experience more variable and often less predictable weather patterns than the rest of the country.… Continue reading

By Raphael Galo, Head of Agribusiness and Structured Operations at A7 Capital

For anyone in Ohio watching South America at the end of January, the spreadsheets still look reassuring. USDA’s January WASDE and the latest official Brazilian and Argentine surveys describe a 2025-26 season with abundant soybeans and corn flowing out of the Southern Hemisphere. On paper, global stocks are rebuilding, export programs look strong, and the world balance sheet appears “comfortable.”

Yet behind that word lies a South American summer marked by volatile weather, rising local costs, heated domestic demand, and farm margins that feel much tighter than the global numbers suggest.

Brazil remains the center of this story. In its fourth 2025-26 crop survey, CONAB projects another record soybean harvest, with planted area close to 49 million hectares, and production around 176.124 million metric tons (down from the third survey, which expected 177.601 million tons), a few percentage points above last season and broadly aligned with USDA’s slightly more optimistic 178-million-ton projection.… Continue reading

By Geraldo José Guimarães Isoldi, South America Correspondent

As a new year begins, market attention in Brazil is increasingly shifting toward the planting of the second corn crop (safrinha). Estimates released on Jan. 15 by CONAB (Brazil’s National Supply Company, a federal agency responsible for official crop estimates and supply-and-demand balances) kept safrinha production unchanged at 110.46 million metric tons. Combined with a minor downward revision in the summer crop (first crop), from 25.91 to 25.90 million tons, and an estimated 2.51 million tons from the third crop, total Brazilian corn production in the January update reached 138.87 million tons.

This figure is virtually unchanged from December’s projection (138.88 million tons) and still represents the second-largest corn crop in Brazil’s history.

For soybeans, as harvest has just begun, CONAB revised its estimate downward by 1 million tons, from 177.12 million tons in December to 176.12 million tons in the first estimate of the year.… Continue reading

By Raphael Galo, Head of Agribusiness and Structured Operations at A7 Capital

USDA’s December WASDE, at first glance, looks “calm.” Soybeans still suggest manageable supply, corn turned a bit more sensitive, and the quick takeaway would be: the world has enough grain to absorb some noise. The problem is that, at this time of year, the market often gets it wrong when it confuses numbers with execution. Over the next 4 to 6 weeks, the narrative won’t be driven by table lines, but by the field, the harvest calendar, operational windows, and ports. In other words: the market isn’t debating only how much South America will produce — it’s debating when that supply becomes flow.

For 2025/26 soybeans, USDA made only marginal adjustments from November to December, keeping the same tone. Global production rose from 421.75 to 422.54 million metric tons, global crush edged up from 364.98 to 365.24 million, and global ending stocks increased from 121.99 to 122.37 million.… Continue reading

By Geraldo José Guimarães Isoldi – South America Correspondent

Brazil has just wrapped up its 2024/25 corn season with a record crop estimated by CONAB at 141 million metric tons. Even though exports have been only “reasonable”, 33 million tons shipped through the first week of November and 40 million tons projected by January 2026, domestic market dynamics have been strong enough to push prices steadily higher over the past several months.

Farmers’ strategy of holding grain in expectation of more attractive prices has worked. The ESALQ B3 physical index, a cash market benchmark for the Campinas region in São Paulo state, rose USD 0.83 per 60-kg bag (+6.88%) from October to November, climbing from USD 12.07 to USD 12.90. Through December 4, it added another USD 0.28 (+2.17%), reaching USD 13.18, its highest level since late May.

Futures on Brazil’s B3 exchange, however, moved in an exaggerated fashion. Driven by what appeared to be excessive concern over early-season weather and soybean crop development, traders pushed the January contract to a peak of USD 14.34 per bag.… Continue reading

By Raphael Galo, Head of Agribusiness and Structured Operations at A7 Capital

For the U.S. producer looking at the 2025-26 crop after USDA’s WASDE reports resumed, the outlook for soybeans and corn in South America still appears “comfortable” in the official numbers, but once you dig into weather, costs and domestic demand, the safety margin looks much thinner than the headlines suggest.

In Brazil, soybean numbers keep climbing. CONAB’s second crop survey projects a record area of about 49 million hectares (+3.6% from the previous crop), with production estimated at 177.6016 million tons in 2025-26, slightly below the 171.4817 million tons of the 2024-25 cycle. USDA’s November WASDE, in turn, works with a Brazilian crop of 175 million tons, domestic use close to 63.3 million and exports around 112.5 million, cementing the country’s role as the world’s main supplier. These figures rest on still-reasonable conditions in Brazil’s Central-West, but behind them sits a more complex weather mosaic: climate reports point to a La Niña influence from late 2025 onward, with a tendency toward above-normal rainfall in parts of the Central-West and North, but a risk of irregular or below-normal volumes in southern Brazil and parts of Argentina and Paraguay, along with temperatures consistently above historical averages.… Continue reading

By Geraldo José Guimarães Isoldi, Agricultural Markets Specialist, Terra Investimentos

As another crop year comes to an end in Brazil, planting for the 2025-26 season is now underway in the Southern Hemisphere, while U.S. farmers wrap up their own harvests. Despite months marked by conflicting information and intense weather speculation, Brazil’s 2024-25 crop ultimately delivered a remarkably positive outcome.

Soybean production reached a record 171.48 million metric tons, harvested from 49 million hectares (121 million acres), with an average yield of 3,620 kg/ha (≈54 bushels per acre), according to CONAB (Brazil’s National Supply Company, the federal agency responsible for official crop estimates).

For corn, the results were even more surprising: Brazil harvested 141.1 million tons across 21.83 million hectares (54 million acres), with yields averaging 6,460 kg/ha (≈103 bushels per acre). Private estimates were slightly higher, averaging 142.4 million tons, with some forecasts, such as AgroConsult’s, reaching 150 million tons.

While soybean market dynamics remained relatively stable, corn commercialization proved to be one of the main challenges of the season.… Continue reading