Near record production and higher beginning stocks that added to a comfortable level of world wheat supplies, got the lion’s share of attention in USDA’s first estimate of wheat supply and demand for marketing year 2015/16. Looking beyond the snapshot of today’s situation, however, there are trends and other information that could present unseen challenges — and demand new solutions.
Over the past few years, good conditions blessed the majority of the world’s wheat farmers. They produced record yields of 717 million metric tons (MMT) in 2013/14 and increased that to 726 MMT in 2014/15. USDA’s initial forecast for 2015/16 is down, but only to 719 MMT. The International Grains Council forecast is even less optimistic, with production at 708 MMT for 2015/16. The global stocks-to-use ratio of a 28% forecast by USDA matches the five-year average and adds comfort for buyers.
However, the trend in world demand is even more impressive.… Continue readingRead More »