By Todd Hubbs, University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
The prospect of an above-trend soybean yield in 2020 appears high and creates headwinds for soybean prices. USDA projected the national soybean yield at 49.8 bushels per acre in July. Better crop ratings point to significant improvements in this year’s crop.
Cooler and wetter weather across large areas of the Corn Belt holds the potential for ratings improving even more as we move into the critical period for soybeans in early August. While many areas saw advances in ratings, some key states show greater than 15% of acres in various levels of drought conditions. Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan, and Ohio all meet this criterion.
An August soybean yield above current trend projections seems likely and only the magnitude remains in question. Personal yield forecasting models currently project national soybean yield at 51 bushels per acre. If a yield of this magnitude came to fruition, 2020-21 marketing year ending stocks move well above 500 million bushels under current USDA consumption and acreage projections.… Continue readingRead More »