Market Analysis

Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Weather continues to be a factor for this growing season across the Midwest.  The western cornbelt has seen adverse weather for weeks which has led to reduced corn yields, especially in Nebraska. Illinois has seen corn quality with sprout damage often as a reality.  

Bottom line, corn harvest is simply not taking place in Ohio and other states. Producers are stepping on the gas pedal in a fever pitch to get soybeans harvested as quickly as possible before the next rain event takes place. Dry conditions have soybean dust flying everywhere. Ohio producers vividly remember last year when persistent rain delayed soybean harvest. Damage levels spiked above 20% in numerous Ohio counties. No one wants to relive that nightmare this harvest season.

After the report was released Friday, corn was down 18 cents, soybeans down 4 cents, and wheat down 10 cents. Prior to the noon report, corn was up 3 cents, soybeans up 7 cents, and wheat up 1 cent. … Continue reading

By Jon Scheve

The latest USDA numbers gave the grain markets plenty to digest as harvest continues across the Corn Belt. Soybean stocks came in tighter than traders expected, wheat offered few surprises and corn took the biggest hit after USDA lowered feed demand.

Beans

On a positive note, after the USDA stocks report, there seem to be fewer beans remaining at the end of the marketing year than traders estimated. This should keep a floor under bean prices longer term. However, early yield reports in some areas of the eastern belt are as high as 20% above “normal,” with few growers east of the Mississippi River reporting below-normal yields. Rain has kept many farmers in the western belt from starting harvest, and we won’t know until the middle of this week whether the heavy rains have caused any quality issues.

If bean yields remain above normal, this could cap upside potential until more is known about South America’s weather in late December and early January.… Continue reading

By Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting LLC

With energy resuming its rally, tightening supplies and little sign of demand rationing, grains and soybeans have one more major hurdle to jump for a counter-seasonal harvest rally: the late-September Trump-Xi meeting.

Geopolitical fundamentals continue to show escalation, rather than the de-escalation the trade had priced in, in key commodity regions of the Middle East and Baltic. In my view, this has helped keep the entire commodity complex supported.

In addition, USDA continued to raise U.S. average prices for wheat, corn and soybeans in its September WASDE update, a feature that usually suggests limited demand rationing is taking place. Since May, USDA has increased the average corn price by 30 cents per bushel to $4.80 and the soybean price by 60 cents per bushel to $12.

In the aftermath of the September WASDE report, two major questions are running through my mind heading into October:

1. Based on information from my clients and subscribers, was USDA correct in lowering its corn yield estimate while raising its soybean yield estimate?

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Last month I was cycling with a friend. Before we reached the halfway mark, we decided to bypass a longer route because daylight was shrinking. The miles flew by in a hot, humid evening with zero air movement. Despite that sticky weather, as we got closer to his home, we made another decision, this time adding miles back in. Crazy huh! We were soaked from the humidity. The twice-amended route got us back five minutes after the official sunset. I quickly remembered that a ride leader on a group ride calls that feat “leaving nothing on the table,” referring to daylight hours. Producers will be achieving that feat now, in reference to working long hours, dozens of times this fall, as some could still be harvesting in mid-November. Here’s to a safe, successful harvest season.  

On Tuesday, Sept. 1, December 2026, CBOT corn closed at $5.46, up 6.5 cents as it made fresh new contract highs for four consecutive days.… Continue reading

By Eric Richer, Ohio State University Extension, Field Specialist, Farm Management

With harvest here or nearly here, now might seem like an odd time to be thinking about adding more on-farm storage. It seems unlikely that unscheduled grain bin construction will be added before the 2026 harvest, but could this harvest be used to answer key questions about bin size, layout, and cost? Answers to these questions will require intentional thought and planning before scheduling potential new bin construction. This article will focus on the economic benefits of on-farm storage.

Recent Ohio harvest seasons have demonstrated how quickly market conditions can change. In some years, large crops have led to long elevator lines, transportation bottlenecks, and limited delivery opportunities. In other years, drought-reduced production has resulted in very different market dynamics. These changing conditions reinforce the importance of evaluating grain storage economics annually rather than relying solely on past experiences.

When discussing grain storage, farmers often focus first on the opportunities to capture higher prices later in the marketing year.… Continue reading

By Jon Scheve

USDA September Report:

On Friday, the USDA significantly lowered the corn yield while slightly raising soybean yield. That is puzzling because widespread Midwest dryness from mid-July through mid-August affected both crops. Even with improved conditions in late August, I expected both yields to move in the same direction.

Corn:

Unlike last September, when the USDA added nearly 1.4 million planted acres, this year’s increase was only 100,000 acres.  They also recognized the dry conditions throughout the Plains and reduced the estimate for harvested corn acres slightly.  Long term, this seems more bullish than bearish to me.

The USDA also made a substantial reduction to the Feed & Residual category, which I’ve said for over a year was very overstated.  Lowering demand may sound bearish, but I doubt the USDA will adjust this category again anytime soon, unless it needs to raise carryout because of a production reduction.

The USDA also increased last year’s corn exports slightly. … Continue reading

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

I love watching hummingbirds drink from the feeder just outside my kitchen window. The show is always entertaining. One August morning, two battled for their turn. My feeder has five ports, and the pair quickly learned that it worked best not to drink side by side. Any other configuration quickly proved ideal. Several times, I watched two drinking, then one darted out of sight. It would return just seconds later, only to rinse and repeat. At times, one dropped into the butterfly bush, hovering like a helicopter, or teasing its partner before rising again for another sip. The entire scene was a mesmerizing moment in time, much like the harvest activity in the coming months, which will operate like a well-tuned orchestra, with each person knowing their role in bringing corn and soybeans out of the field as efficiently as possible.

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, at this writing, was completed more than a week ago.… Continue reading

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

“Corn day.” Instantly, you are drawn to your own unique stories as memories flood your mind. It could mean the first or last day of planting or harvest, harvesting with the grandkids, the day the last load of corn went to town, or going to the mailbox and seeing the check for that final load.

For me, corn day means gathering with siblings and their families. In a flash, I’m drawn back to my teenage years on the family dairy farm, sitting in front of a mountain of sweet corn. More than 60 dozen ears would be husked (yes, I already know yours was larger), silked, blanched, chilled in an ice-cold bath, cut, and frozen.

Siblings from down the road and even out of state traveled with their families to gather for corn day. The goal was always to freeze as much corn as possible while making sure there was plenty to savor right off the cob with butter and salt.… Continue reading

By Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting LLC

Borrowing from a phrase in the 1990s about the economy: “It’s the grain demand, stupid.”

USDA confirmed in its August WASDE report continued tightening of supplies for both grains and cattle. Now the futures trade needs to come to grips with little, if any, demand rationing.

The headline story for the futures trade in USDA’s most recent monthly report was the reduced corn yield, in my view.

Just as important to me was the fact that USDA continued to increase U.S. corn exports in both the 2025-26 and 2026-27 marketing years. As a result of this, coupled with USDA increasing 2026-27 world corn exports, the world corn stocks-to-use ratio is now at a five-year low. The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio is also just 2% from matching the five-year low set back in 2022-23. See the Stocks/Use Matrix below.

When viewing the numbers from this angle, it seems much clearer to me that the U.S.… Continue reading

By Wm. Bruce Clevenger, Ohio State University

A nervous feeling that farmers might experience is answering the question: Will my 2026 grain production meet my grain marketing plan? It’s easy to speculate about the effect of rainfall and temperatures on crop condition and yield potential. Did the delayed planting turn out to be good because the corn was not pollinating during the peak of the July heat dome? Did early planted soybeans turn out better or worse than expected despite the emergence conditions? What is the production impact of getting or missing August rainfall? Farm managers may be feeling more ups and downs than a tractor seat crossing chiseled wheat ground.

How much production have you marketed so far? Since I’m asking for a friend, let’s go back to step 1 of our pre-harvest marketing plan. Expected production was based on production history, and we might have used our crop insurance Actual Production History, or APH.… Continue reading

By Doug Tenney

Every growing season reminds us that uncertainty is part of agriculture. We can watch the weather, monitor crop conditions and study supply and demand, yet events halfway around the world can still change grain prices overnight. That was certainly the case during the last week of July, when geopolitical developments, rather than weather, became the driving force behind the markets.

Grain prices collapsed sharply on Monday, July 27, as traders reacted to renewed optimism that a ceasefire in the conflict involving the United States and Iran could reduce military activity. Selling accelerated throughout the day as traders rushed to exit long positions. The phrase heard repeatedly on trading floors was simply, “Get me out.”

December 2026 CBOT corn closed at $4.74, down 13.5 cents. July 2027 CBOT wheat settled at $6.985, down 18 cents. November 2026 soybeans posted the largest decline, closing at $12.1375, down 39.75 cents.

Soybean open interest that day fell 29,693 contracts while corn open interest dropped 14,035 contracts.… Continue reading

By Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting LLC

As I write this month’s post, the commodity trade has correctly refocused its attention on supply-related disruptions for WTI crude and wheat, thanks to geopolitical hostilities in the Middle East and Baltic regions that are directly impacting both commodities.

USDA’s July WASDE report tightened U.S. wheat production to a generational low and reduced 2026-27 U.S. corn carryover to below 1.9 billion bushels.

Supply concerns are not limited to the United States. France is experiencing a weather-related corn crop situation similar to what U.S. farmers faced in 2012, pushing French corn futures toward $7 per bushel as of this writing.

While I have been more price-negative on the soybean complex, the relationship between soy oil and renewable diesel continues to provide price support. USDA also increased its forecast for 2026-27 soybean exports by 30 million bushels.

It is becoming clearer to the trade that (1) supplies are falling and (2) demand has not been rationed.… Continue reading

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Last month, I strung together a series of early morning cycling rides near my home in Fairfield County. I experienced fantastic sunrises with scenes I had never experienced before. Cycling for decades, and again last month, has given me the opportunity to see things I likely would never see while driving my truck. I have always been thrilled to see barns, or even newer pole barns, with a cupola adorning the roofline; it’s just something you don’t see that often. One morning, I even noticed a hay hook at the very end of the building, perhaps to be a bit different, just like the ones used 80-plus years ago. I’ve cycled past that barn dozens of times, never seeing that hay hook earlier. It just goes to show that there is something new to see when we look and pay attention. What new things will you observe in the coming months wherever you go?… Continue reading

By Garth McDorman, Ohio State University

Spring planting is over. We’ve cleaned up machinery, done some spraying, and hopefully sold some new crop grain at good values. Our work here is done for the summer, right? Maybe, maybe not. One of the final tasks some may face before harvest is something they may dread: cleaning out the grain bins. While it may not be the most enjoyable job because it is hot, dusty, and potentially dangerous, the fact that we sometimes don’t have this grain sold yet may be most concerning. So how do we make the correct decision on when and how to sell this grain? I bring this up mostly because we are exiting what has historically been the best time of year to market our grain. We are also in what could be considered a weather market, where grain markets are highly sensitive to weather forecasts. On top of that, the markets are still closely watching geopolitical tensions between the U.S.… Continue reading

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Last month, I volunteered some hours for my Fairfield County Master Gardener program by weeding and planting in the flower gardens at Wagnalls Memorial Library. Cindy and I had lived in the Lithopolis community for 19 years and had become familiar with the library’s programs. My dad even talked of the movies they would show at the library in his earlier years. On my workday, I observed 20 goats devouring an overgrown wooded area, fenced in by a 4-foot-high roll-up woven-wire fence with shocks powered by solar. I learned those goats could eat nearly the entire length of daylight hours, just like the length of your workdays.

Wheat harvest in central and southern Ohio was all over the board, with yields varying widely among producers. Yield reports we have seen would categorize it as a very disappointing wheat harvest this year. Central Ohio yields ranged from 10 to 100 bushels per acre, a disaster for those at the low end.… Continue reading

By Jon Scheve, Scheve Grain

The biggest report of the year turned out to be a bit of a dud. Normally, this report produces 15 to 20-cent moves in corn and 25 to 30-cent moves in soybeans. Both markets showed signs of a big rally during the first 10 minutes of trading, but those gains quickly faded before the market closed on report day. The following day’s rally was encouraging, but was it simply short covering ahead of the holiday weekend?

Overall, the report was neutral for corn relative to pre-report expectations, but that doesn’t necessarily mean prices have to rally from here. I was disappointed that the USDA left corn acreage unchanged. However, the agency did include this special note with the report:

“The current estimates for corn and soybean planted acreage are based on survey information collected prior to the completion of planting and are subject to normal survey variability.… Continue reading

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Happy Fourth of July to everyone! It’s just around the corner. Everyone is surely aware that this year marks the 250th anniversary of our country. Family and community parties could easily be over-the-top celebrations of this historic event for our country. It will be a time to remember for years to come. How many can remember the celebrations that took place at the 200-year mark? Meanwhile, Ohio producers are hoping for timely rains and that a summer drought does not occur.

Many weather forecasters will say that the United States is now experiencing an El Niño. Typically, that weather pattern is not kind to yields for Ohio’s producers. That pattern often results in two knockout punches: declining yields and declining prices for corn and soybeans. NOAA just came out on June 11 with a 63% prediction of a U.S. summer Super El Niño. A Super El Niño has been in the news for at least three months.… Continue reading

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Today, USDA provided two major reports. First, the U.S. Acreage Report of crops planted for 2026. Corn, soybean, and wheat acres were detailed in that report. Second is the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report as of June 1.

Grain prices after the report had corn up 3 cents, soybeans up 4 cents, and wheat up 8 cents. Just before the reports were released, corn was down 2 cents, soybeans down 9 cents, and wheat down 3 cents.

Many expected both corn and soybean acres to increase in the Prospective Plantings Report on March 31. That report estimated 2026 U.S. corn acres at 95.3 million and soybeans at 84.7 million. That potential increase is the result of favorable planting weather across much of the Corn Belt in April.

Others thought the total corn and soybean acres would be less than 180 million. It was 180.7 million acres. Last year the total reached 180.003 million acres.… Continue reading

By Wm. Bruce Clevenger, Ohio State University Extension, Field Specialist, Farm Management

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) releases at least 38 official reports each month covering production, prices, stocks, processing, and crop progress. That pace is typical throughout the year. On top of that, the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report pulls everything together into a global outlook. Taken as a whole, the United States offers some of the most complete and transparent agricultural data anywhere in the world.

WASDE is the big picture report. It combines supply and demand information from across the United States and around the globe into one place. Grain markets move every day based on many sources of information, but the WASDE report remains one of the most closely watched benchmarks. Still, at roughly 40 pages, it can be a heavy lift. That’s why many producers find USDA’s monthly “Secretary’s Briefing” video helpful — it walks through the report in about an hour, highlighting what matters most.… Continue reading