Weather

Ryan Martin 11-3-17

We will work through a little bit of a lull today, but we are nowhere near being done with rain from this system yet. Action today looks to be limited to far southern Ohio, where we can see a few hundredths to a tenth or so. Most of the state will just see clouds, mild air and not much else through the day. Winds may try to work higher in the afternoon.

Rains are back with more frequency and intensity tomorrow. We continue to look for scattered showers through the day bringing .1”-.5” but are raising coverage to closer to 70% of the state. Rains continue for Sunday, scattered through the first part of the day. But, then late in the afternoon and evening, we have our strong cold front, the final wave of action, starting to move into NW parts of the state. The front continues its march south and east through the overnight Sunday night and through Monday midday.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 11-2-17

No major changes this morning to the overall set up today through next Monday. We may be able to actually see a few slightly bigger lulls in action particularly tomorrow for 12-18 hours, but that is it.

Scattered showers will be moving over the state this morning, and may linger in NW parts of the state this afternoon into this evening. However, we likely see lesser elsewhere this afternoon. Rain totals can be a few hundredths to about a quarter of an inch over 50% of the state today. Tomorrow we still have plenty of clouds but only a few sprinkles to .1” of rain over 40% of the state through the day, and that will be over southern Ohio.

Better rains are back for the weekend. Saturday will be an active rain day, with showers bringing .1”-.5” over 60% of the state. Then we take a slightly break with plenty of clouds still for a good chunk of Sunday.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 11-1-17

While the past couple of days have been cloudier and colder than we would have liked, the pattern has been pretty stable. Now, we are moving into a much more active and unsettled pattern over the remainder of this week, the weekend and the early start to next week. We cannot keep precipitation out of the forecast any of the next 6 days, but it will not be raining constantly. Temperatures stay cold today, but will bounce nicely to normal and above normal levels tomorrow through Sunday. Next week, it’s back to the cold air again. Variability and volatility is the key to the forecast this morning.

We have an upper level disturbance pushing across southern Indiana this morning and we will see some of that moisture move into our state as well. With cold air in place this morning as the upper low moves in, we have to keep some chances of scattered snow showers in the back of our minds, at least over SW parts of the state.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-31-17

Sunshine should be a bigger player in the forecast today with high pressure in control. However, we are making some changes to the forecast for later this week, and those changes are for a wetter forecast solution. So, let’s dive right in!

Today looks just fine. Sunshine will help boost temps slightly, although strong southwest flow will have a bigger effect on temps the next two days. We still think we see the warmest air in here ahead of our first cold front Thursday. Still, today, we see nice improvement in the pattern, and it may actually be the best looking day for most of the state.

Tomorrow, clouds and moisture build up from the south and west. This may actually trigger minor spits and sprinkles over the central and east-central part of the state along with southern OH. Rain totals will be a tenth or less. By contrast, sun may be able to hold on most of the day in NW Ohio.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-30-17

We are looking for a better weather to start the week. We have a warm front sitting off to the west in IL and WI that will try and move east through the day today. We don’t think this will yield a full out warm front passage all the way over here in Ohio, but it will be a nudge in the right directions. Winds have a hard time doing more than turning west today, and we will not see significant warming, just temps moderating a bit today after the cold weekend. . Sunshine probably plays the biggest role in getting us a little farther away from those cold temps. We have no significant weather action today or tomorrow outside of sunshine.

We had been looking for our next front to move in here for Wednesday. That front is slowing just a bit, and the rains could be drawn out.… Continue reading

We have a nice finish to the week here today. Another cool start over the state, but in general we see sunshine as a big player through the day. Winds have shifted to the southwest, so that will help moderate temps a bit.

Our next front is on the way for tomorrow. Rains will range from .25” to .5” over about 80% of the state, although we may have to allow for slightly higher totals (up to .75”??) in Darke, Shelby and Preble counties, an offshoot of some of the better rains coming out of Indiana overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning. But, in general, these will be fairly gentle, easily used showers. They should be done by late afternoon or evening.

It will be mostly dry to finish the weekend Sunday, and that dry stretch continues through next Tuesday. A minor upper level disturbance dragging across the Great Lakes may push a few clouds down into northern parts of the state late Monday afternoon and Monday night, but this is not a concern at this time.… Continue reading

Another chilly start, but we have sun on the way today! And, we should see winds start to shift around to the south tonight, allowing temps to moderate more as we finish the week.

Sunshine will be here for tomorrow as well, and clouds wait to increase until late. Our next front is accelerating some, but we still look for our rain to be here through the day Saturday. Now, last weekend, the front we were expecting slowed, and we told you that was not a good thing for us. The opposite is true here. An accelerating front means that we have chances of seeing our rain totals diminish somewhat. We are dropping the top end of rain totals range so now we look for .1
-.6” over about 80% of the state.

Dry behind the front for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. We continue to look for a chance of frost Monday morning, but temps don’t look to be quite as impressive.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-25-17

The forecast pattern looks more active this morning, and we are making some changes to our forecast going forward from this weekend. The changes do not bode well for getting back into the field for any significant harvest push.

Nearby, we have no changes to our forecast. It is chilly this morning as the coldest part of our air mass is here today. Rains are done, however clouds are still going to be a dominant feature. The end is in sight…our neighbors to the west (Indiana) should see more sun developing today. Our time is coming tomorrow. Winds will keep a very cool feel in over the state through the day, and we won’t rule out a bit of drizzle from time to time in east central parts of the state. Clouds break up overnight.

The partial clearing will lead to the potential for frost over a large part of Central Ohio tomorrow morning, with temps dipping into that 31-32 degree range tomorrow morning.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-24-17

The worst of the precipitation is done over the state this morning. However, that does not mean we have all that nice of a forecast for you. On the contrary…there is no change in our thinking this morning that we are looking at cloudy, damp, cold batch of nasty in here over the next 48 hours, at least compared to the glorious summer extension we found ourselves in last week. The front is through the state. But we are seeing strong winds circulating around the low off to our north and east this morning and that will keep plenty of cold air pushing into the region. Moisture still can get wrung out. In fact, we can’t completely rule out spits, sprinkles drizzle and a shower or two over northern areas. The worst will be over Lake Erie and north of there, but we are keeping eyes peeled farther south, perhaps over at least the northern most two rows of counties across the state.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-23-17

Our cold front slowed in its eastward progress significantly over the weekend, and that is not a good thing for us this morning. If you are needing a silver lining, it would be that we were able to squeeze a completely dry day yesterday since the front slowed, and harvest rolled on without a hitch. However, a stronger front brings more rain potential, something that we will see manifest today. Today we have rains lasting for a longer period, and we have to bump our rain totals higher now since the front has been able to pick up more moisture. Right now we are putting rain totals at .5”-1.5” over nearly all of the state. Thunderstorms are what we need to watch today, as they would really have the ability to bump totals up quickly. At this point, the thunderstorms seem to be more of an issue farther west, over Indiana, rather than here.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-20-17

The short term forecast is unchanged this morning: Sunny, windy, dry weather holds for today and tomorrow, similar to what we have seen the past few days, and just like we have been talking up all week long. Our next front works in to the state later Sunday and goes through midday Monday…similar to our thoughts over the past couple of days. In general, 8 out of the next 10 days we have a very solid handle on and our forecast is locked in. However, the remaining two days hold the challenge. Those 2 days are Tuesday and Wednesday…the days immediately behind the front we expect to close out our weekend and start next week.

First, the front: as mentioned above, it is still on the way for Sunday. Arrival mostly later afternoon and then going through the overnight into Monday. The front looks slightly stronger this morning, but at this point we feel comfortable with the .25”-1” rain range we have talked about the past few days.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-19-17

No change in this great weather for the balance of the week and weekend. Dry weather holds through Sunday with slowly climbing temps, strong southwest winds and excellent dry down conditions. Morning dew should be lighter over the next few mornings too, meaning we should be able to be in the field faster.

Our next front is still on the way for Monday. This still is the slower moving front we explained yesterday. Rain totals still look good at .25”-1” over nearly all of the state in our analysis this morning. Some models have swung back to a solution that has a second, stronger wave of moisture coming up as the front encounters the mountains off to the east. We think the moisture is overdone, and we are not convinced that the second wave approach is even right. It is a scenario we are looking closely at, but for now, we will sit with rains up to 1” and have everything done by midnight Monday night.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-18-17

No complaints here at midweek. We have dry weather on the docket again today, and more is on the way. Warmer starting to assert itself too, thanks to strong south and southwest winds that started cranking up yesterday. Now, all of this should not come as any kind of surprise, since we have been talking about this set up going back into last week. Sun dominates today through the weekend, evaporation rates have maxed out and with these winds, we have excellent drying forecast through the weekend.

However, if you caught our final above statement, you should be clued in that we are making some changes to the forecast early next week, and they center around our next system’s arrival. That front looks to be moving sufficiently slower this morning to make changes to our forecast, and that may not be the most ideal set of circumstances for us.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-17-17

We have no changes to the forecast this morning, and our pattern is on track for the rest of this week through Saturday. Sunshine and blue sky will dominate and we will see temps slowly but surely move upward. We will be near normal by midweek (tomorrow) and above normal to finish the week and weekend. Winds kick up late week, and we will see low humidity levels alongside excellent evaporation rates.

Our next front does try and move in late Sunday into Monday, but we feel it still has very little left in the tank as it arrives. As such, we are leaving our forecast basically alone, except we are dropping our coverage down to about 20% for Sunday night. We will stay warm and windy that day.

Next week still looks mostly dry. However, we have one time frame we are watching closely this morning. Some models late yesterday tried to bring a secondary surge of moisture up that old Sunday frontal boundary, bringing in some light rain for Monday evening and Tuesday.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-16-17

The forecast looks pretty nice this morning as we move into an extended period of dry weather. Clouds may take their own sweet time breaking up here in the short term as cooler air is in place after following the frontal boundary in yesterday. However, as you look at the surface map, this is one of those rare times that you see no significant front anywhere across the central and western US, only high pressure on the way. So, clouds will break up and move out, and we will see warmer, drier air in here eventually. Today will just be a transition day, with no new precipitation.

The dry pattern continues tomorrow through Saturday. Temperatures will head back to normal by midweek and will be above normal to finish the week and for the weekend. Evaporation rates will be near maximum by midweek and with strong southwest breezes, we should see excellent dry down.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-13-17

Even though the past couple of days have made it feel like we never will get good drying back, sunshine will take more control of the state today and that will begin to drive temperatures up some. The dry weather continues tomorrow and will pair with stronger winds out of the southwest. This will increase our evaporation rates and lead to good dry down statewide. Temps will be back to above normal levels. Winds for Saturday should average 12-25 miles an hour with stronger gusts.

The next chance of rain we see is still on track for Sunday. Some models are bringing the front about 6 hours sooner, others are holding it off till late afternoon. No matter when it arrives, Sunday will be wet, but the rains will be done by midnight at the latest. We are keeping rains totals at .25”-.75” over about 75% of the state, but will skew many areas to the lower end of the range.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-12-17

Drier weather is here. It may not seem like it in parts of the state today, as lingering clouds and cooler temps don’t allow for the drier feel we have become used to over the past weeks and months. However, we have no new rain on the way, and we should see better chances of sunshien going forward, even by the end fo the dsay today. Full sun is on the way for tomorrwo and Saturday, with gusty winds emerging late tomorrow through Saturday and most of Sunday ahead of our next front. These winds, along with low humidity and near maximum evaporation rates, should allow for good drying tomorrow through most of the weekend.

Our next system is still on the way for late in the weekend. We see the cold front holding off until very late Sunday afternoon to arrive. Then rains continue through the evening and overnight, finally exiting the state to the east as the sun rises Monday morning.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-11-17

Good rains are moving across the state today. We are keeping rain totals this morning at .25”-1” over about 70% of the state, and we are going to miss the really heavy action. Rains of 2” or more are likely in Michigan…but those storms look to pull northeast and move into Ontario, rather than heading this way. Still, this is a wet set up this morning, as we have been projecting, and it will put harvest action at a standstill.

We dry down tomorrow through Saturday. Yes, we still have a concern about lingering cloud cover tomorrow, but we do not think it really produces any new precipitation worth talking about. That being said, the clouds, if they hang around with any ferocity, will make for a damp feel, and very little dry down for the day. So, best case scenario, we can get these clouds to break up quickly tomorrow.… Continue reading

Ryan Martin 10-10-17

Not a lot of change in the overall forecast pattern this morning, but we do have a few tweaks to our forecast…mostly finessing the timing of our next two rain events. Today we should start with decent sun, but clouds will building this afternoon as our next system pushes across the western and central Corn Belt. Rains will actually begin in Indiana sooner today, and that means we need to be on the lookout sooner here too.

Rains will start this evening and overnight over the state and will fill in nicely through tomorrow as well. We are leaving rain totals alone this morning for the entire event. That means we are looking at rain totals of .25”-1” over about 70% of the state. We are pulling back on the coverage of this rain event because it looks to try and pull a little farther north and may leave out southern parts of the state from any significant rains.… Continue reading

The remains of Nate came into the state yesterday, which was earlier than expected in our discussion last Friday. However, Nate made landfall along the Gulf Coast about 12-15 hours sooner than anticipated too, so that makes sense he would get here sooner. In any case, it’s not a bad thing because we are seeing the remains leave quicker too. This morning we are dealing with the last of the moisture associated with Nate over eastern Ohio, and starting to dry out to the west. We should see drying continue through the entire day tomorrow. Sunshine overspreads the state today, and holds tomorrow. Clouds develop very late tomorrow evening and overnight.

Those clouds will be in ahead of our next weather system, on the way for Wednesday. A nice frontal complex is coming together today in the central plains and will exit to the east and northeast tonight. This will spread rain over the western and central Corn Belt tomorrow, and showers move into Indiana tomorrow evening and overnight.… Continue reading