2026 Acreage outlook differs from trader estimates

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Some people rank this report day as one of the top three for the entire year.

There were a few key takeaways. Soybean acres were less than expected. Corn acres were above expected. Corn stocks are less than expected.

One point to remember today: Rarely are both corn and soybean acres or grain stocks bullish or bearish.

U.S. acres will be the most-watched feature today. Keep in mind that farmer surveys were a part of the process to determine acres. However, those surveys were collected before the U.S.-Iran conflict began.

USDA today released two reports: U.S. Prospective Plantings and U..S Quarterly Grain Stocks as of March 1.

Following the noon USDA report release, corn is up 2 cents, soybeans are up 12 cents, and wheat is up 8 cents. Just before the report was released, corn was down 3 cents, soybeans down 1 cent, and wheat up 9 cents.

U.S. acres numbers:

• Corn 95.3 million acres, last year 98.78 million acres.
• Soybeans: 84.7 million acres, last year 81.2 million acres.
• Wheat: 43.8 million acres, last year 45.3 million acres.

To compare, trader estimates for U.S. 2026 acres were:

• corn at 94.3 million acres,
• soybeans at 85.5 million acres
• wheat at 44.7 million acres.

U.S. grain stocks as of March 1:

• Corn 9.02 billion bushels, last year 8.147 billion bushels
• Soybeans: 2.1 billion bushels, last year: 1.911 billion bushels
• Wheat: 1.3 billion bushels, last year 1.237 billion bushels

For further perspective, trader estimates for U.S. grain stocks as of March 1 were:

• Corn 9.1 billion bushels,
• soybeans 2.067 billion bushels,
• wheat 1.310 billion bushels.

The total for U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat acres is 223.8 million acres. Last year, 225.3 million acres. A quick overview will add corn, soybean, and wheat acres for one total. As a result, traders are expecting that number to be slightly below last year’s.

Today, the monthly WASDE Report or the monthly Supply and Demand Report does not take place. That next report will be on April 9.

Trade expectations heading into that report are U.S. corn acres down from last year, U.S. soybean acres up from last year, and U.S. wheat acres down from last year. U.S. grain stocks for both corn and soybeans will be higher than a year ago.

Looking at the 10-year tables of estimated planted acres from the USDA Outlook Forum in February, the high corn acres occurred in 2025. The 10-year high for soybean acres was projected for 2026 in that Outlook Forum.

Looking ahead, this trading week is shortened for grains as they will be closed in observance of Good Friday on Friday, April 3.

The market will now focus on whether traders fully buy into USDA’s numbers. There are still several uncertainties to watch, including fertilizer availability and demand.

One key question remains in my mind: for producers who locked in fertilizer last fall, will those supplies actually arrive on time?