Planting, prices, and plenty of uncertainty

By Doug Tenney

“Whatcha doing?” was both the question and the look veteran household cat Lizzie gave me one morning, her glare clearly signaling that I wasn’t moving fast enough to serve her breakfast. Similarly, producers across Ohio and the Midwest are asking themselves that same question—with multi-page to-do lists darting through their minds in a constant state of rapid-fire during this hectic time of year we call spring planting season. Be safe and stay focused!

The NASS Weekly Crop Progress Report of April 28 detailed that U.S. corn planting progress had reached 24%, up 12 points from the previous week and slightly ahead of that week’s five-year average of 22%. Meanwhile, Ohio’s corn planting reached just 8%; the previous week, it was 2%. U.S. soybean planting progress was a record 18%, the previous week was 8%, and the five-year average was 12%. Ohio’s soybean planting progress was 10%, ahead of the five-year average of 6%.

Planting conditions in the third week of April were superb for much of Ohio. An informal office poll revealed these two adjectives, perfect and stellar, were used most often in detailing April planting conditions. Timely rains in the coming months will be important.

Last month was the most volatile April for the stock market since the Great Depression’s volatility in April 1932. On isolated days this year, the DOW’s range from high to low was 2,000 points or more, while the change in any given hour was often more than 300 points. Tariff uncertainties were the main factor for the rapidly swinging DOW changes.

In March, Americans robustly spent their paychecks purchasing big-ticket, long-lasting goods, including cars and appliances. The Dow Jones forecast had expected that the increase for March would be a dismal increase of 1.6%. Instead, reports show that the estimate was surprisingly blown away as that increase was 9.2%. The ongoing tariffs and their uncertainty played a huge role in the unexpected increase. Obviously, consumers thought, “It is better to buy at the price I see today compared to the huge unknown price months down the road.”

Commodity prices at the CBOT will see new daily price limits from May 1 to October 31.  Those changes are – corn, now 35 cents, was 30 cents; soybeans, now 75 cents, was 70 cents; wheat is still at 40 cents, no change. Daily limits change every six months on May 1 and November 1 with a CBOT rule that dates to at least 2014.

Tariff news has continued to be a headline-making event for the past two months and will continue for an unknown period. Into late April, tariff updates were occurring multiple times a week. It means you need to either be good at updating your spreadsheet or have plenty of chalk and a good eraser on your black or whiteboard if you want to plot out each move from beginning to current. U.S. government policy changes for tariffs were abrupt in the third week of April. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the “current trade trajectory is not sustainable.”  In addition, President Trump announced mid-month that he wanted to fire U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Then, less than 48 hours later, President Trump announced that he had no intention of firing Chairman Powell.

Lost and rarely mentioned about China – they are not canceling previous U.S. soybean purchases. Currently, China still has 7 million bushels of U.S. soybean purchases that have not yet been shipped.

We are seeing hints that U.S. trade deals may soon be reached with Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and others. The Trump administration needs deals to take place to stave off the economic uncertainty that abounds. However, it is important to tell the obvious – that even the total of new deals with those countries is not even close to China’s purchases.

It will be imperative in the months ahead for the United States to put forth a well-defined bio-fuels policy with the 45Z policy in the works for months. For the past 3 to 5 years, we have seen multiple new soybean crushing plants or additions to old crushing plants that have been built and are now operational. Merchandisers often sourced tallow or used cooking oil from outside the United States as a cheaper feedstock compared to U.S. soybean oil.

Ultimately, the market needs some unexpected demand news to carry momentum beyond what may be the best start to a U.S. planting season in years.

Thought for the day: “The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”

This column is believed to be reliable and includes the author’s opinions. Unforeseen and changing circumstances can change price outlooks and direction. Neither Ohio’s Country Journal or Tenney assume liability for their use. Doug Tenney is a licensed commodity broker. Copyright 2025, Doug Tenney, all rights reserved. E-mail address is dtenney@ leistmercantile.com. Leist Mercantile specializes in marketing strategies and crop insurance coverage.