Record corn yield estimates and a soybean rally in August

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Last month I went on a morning bike ride with Roger, as I have done dozens of times in past years. We navigated closed roads in Fairfield County as one road north of Lancaster had four culvert washouts due to the heavy rains of Sunday, July 27.  Our bike ride had a welcome sighting of at least six golden yellow finches, which forged ahead of us for at least a mile. I also thought my phone was in the pocket of my cycling jersey but quickly realized it was not there in the first mile of our ride.  I thought it odd that I did not find my phone in my truck upon our return. So, I did what all of us had done, I used another phone to call myself. However, this time there was a voice on the other end. That was indeed the weirdest of feelings; it was a fireman at a Fairfield County township firehouse who answered. Apparently, my phone had fallen out of my jersey and somehow set off a 911 tone. 

Surprise is defined as something totally unexpected, just like my phone incident. A classic surprise went down with the August 12 USDA WASDE Report (supply and demand). In the days leading up to this report, traders and producers alike had been expecting USDA to increase the 2025 corn yield from the July report of 181 bushels per acre. Trader estimates ahead of the report had an average of 184.4. I thought 185 would be the number with this report, while expecting the yield to get bigger in the months ahead. This  August 12 yield number came in at 188.8 bushels per acre.

For at least two weeks prior to the August 12 report, private estimates had estimated the corn yield as high as 189. Weekly crop ratings for corn have been at record levels most of this summer. With the U.S. corn yield trending higher over time, there is no correlation between crop ratings when adding the good and excellent numbers together regarding what the yield will finally be next January. Additionally, when analyzing the U.S. corn or soybean yield at any given time for the USDA report, the question always becomes this:  Is your number what USDA reports this month, or is it what USDA details with the final yield next January? The difference is subtle.

The weather in the U.S. cornbelt has been ideal with zero crop stresses into early August.  Hot and dry weather was a concern when the calendar reached August 11. It was a factor in higher soybean prices during the second week of August, as gains of a dime or more took place four days that week. On the remaining trading day that week, soybean prices were down 15 cents. For the week ending August 15, November 2025 CBOT soybeans closed higher 55 cents compared to the previous week.

A social media post from President Trump on Sunday, August 10, around 11 pm Central time suggested, “that China is worried about its supply of soybeans. I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders.” Short covering took place as soybeans moved double digits higher in the CBOT night session that evening. In addition, soybeans made new daily highs mid-morning, taking out the highs of the night session, and closed 23 cents higher.  Soybean shorts were exiting positions on dry weather concerns. Weather concerns became a factor that day and helped soybeans make that strong close. Otherwise, closes could have been lower on the day.

The Farm Science Review will be taking place this month on September 16-18 in London, Ohio. This event can be the spark for Ohio’s producers to begin harvest in earnest in the two weeks that follow.  

With the huge range of planting dates that took place this spring for corn and soybeans, I would expect harvest to be a drawn-out affair. Above normal rain during the first half of October, final completion for harvest could easily be into the middle of November.

Old corn basis levels in Ohio collapsed 40 to 80 cents the last week of July and into mid-August as numerous facilities reported they were receiving their daily usage with cash bushels across the scale.

New crop harvest basis levels in October and November for corn and soybeans weakened 3 to 10 cents the first two weeks of August. Expect that trend to continue in the coming weeks. Those producers with not enough storage capacity to store all bushels will likely be sellers of soybeans at harvest.

Thought for the day: “Don’t judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds that you plant.” – Robert Louis Stevenson.