Bearish WASDE report as USDA reports restart

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

The November WASDE Report (supply and demand) will be scrutinized beyond measure by producers, analysts, and traders alike. Has USDA had enough time to get U.S. corn and soybean production and yields accurate? This report had been scheduled to take place on November 10. However, the U.S. government shut down of 43 days delayed this report taking place timely. Remember that shutdown eliminated a WASDE report for October.

Corn exports up 100 million bushels, corn for ethanol unchanged. Soybeans exports and soybean crush unchanged.

After the report was released, corn was down 7 cents, soybeans down 14 cents, and wheat down 8 cents. Prior to the noon report, corn was unchanged, soybeans down 2 cents, and wheat up 2 cents.  

U.S. corn production was estimated at 16.752  billion bushels, September was 16.814 billion bushels. The average trade estimate was 16.557 billion bushels. U.S. soybean production was estimated at 4.253 billion bushels, September was 4.301 billion bushels. The average trade estimate was 4.266 billion bushels.

The U.S. corn yield was 186.0 bushels per acre. In September, the yield was 186.7. Trader estimates for this month were 184.0. The U.S. soybean yield was 53.0 bushels per acre. In September, the yield was 53.5. Trader estimates were 53.1.

U.S. ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year: U.S. corn ending stocks were 2.154  billion bushels. In September, corn ending stocks were 2.110 billion bushels. The average trade estimate was 2.136 billion bushels. U.S. soybean ending stocks were 290 million bushels. In September, soybean ending stocks were 300 million bushels. The average trade estimate was 304 million bushels.

In South America’s 2025-26 corn and soybean production: Brazil soybean production was estimated at 175 million tons. September was 175 million tons. Argentina soybean production was estimated at 48.5 million tons. September was 48.5 million tons. Brazil corn production was estimated at 131 million tons. September was 131 million tons. Argentina corn production was 53 million tons. September was 53 million tons.

In the two weeks which followed the October 30 meeting between U.S. President Trump and China President Xi, the press releases between the U.S. and China continue to be vitally inconsistent. In other words, the end results don’t match. Upon closer examination, it almost appears each country was at a different party compared to the other country.

Looking ahead, remember that there will not be a massive data dump all in one day next week of U.S. grain export sales which took place during the government shutdown of 43 days, yet never announced. Thursday, November 13 the details of the U.S. export sales for the week ending September 25 were detailed. Sales from the week ending October 2 will be released on Thursday November 20. Missing weekly export sales reports will be caught up once the calendar clicks late December.  

Corn exports are running considerably above the pace USDA has outlined for this marketing year, which started September 1. This early into the marketing year don’t be  surprised if USDA is unchanged for U.S. corn exports.