December WASDE: Bullish corn, neutral soybeans, neutral wheat

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

The December WASDE Report, or the supply-and-demand report, was released on Tuesday. Typically, this report has few, if any, changes, as USDA often takes the November report, changes the date to December, and calls it done. Some call it a “ditto”, others suggest USDA “punted” and made no changes.

Keep in mind that neutral soybeans will be bearish soybean prices when there is nothing published that is friendly for soybeans.

On the supply side, U.S. corn and soybean production and yields were unchanged.

On the demand side, corn exports increased 125 million bushels. Corn for ethanol was unchanged. Soybean exports and crush were unchanged.

There were zero changes for South America estimates for either corn or soybean production.

After the report was released, corn was up 3 cents, soybeans down 6 cents, and wheat down 2 cents. Prior to the noon report, corn was up 1 cent, soybeans down 5 cents, and wheat down 2 cents.  

Ahead of this report, there were no trader estimates for U.S. corn and soybean production, as well as no trader estimates for U.S. corn and soybean yields. Traders appeared to place greater emphasis on U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks, as changes in demand for U.S. exports were at the high end of trader expectations.

Here are the primary figures reported in the December report:
U.S. ending stocks for the 2025–26 marketing year

• Corn ending stocks: 2.029 billion bushels (November: 2.154 billion; Trade estimate: 2.124 billion)
• Soybean ending stocks: 290 million bushels (November: 290 million; Trade estimate: 302 million)

U.S. production

• Corn production: 16.752 billion bushels (November: 16.752 billion)
• Soybean production: 4.253 billion bushels (November: 4.253 billion)

U.S. yields

• Corn yield: 186.0 bushels per acre (November: 186.0)
• Soybean yield: 53.0 bushels per acre (November: 53.0)

South America 2025–26 production

• Brazil soybean production: 175 million tons (November: 175 million)
• Argentina soybean production: 48.5 million tons (November: 48.5 million)
• Brazil corn production: 131 million tons (November: 131 million)
• Argentina corn production: 53 million tons (November: 53 million)

Soybeans remain under price pressure, with actual purchases of US soybeans by China disappointing, and details still lacking on what was actually agreed upon at the October meeting between Trump and Xi. As of this date, China has purchased 2.845 million tons of US soybeans or 104.5 million bushels.

USDA is expected to announce further details on the $12 billion U.S. farm aid package to offset lower soybean prices and the tariffs. The source of funding for this aid package remains part of the details yet to be determined.

Following this report, traders are awaiting the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on the Trump tariffs. The Supreme Court does not telegraph its final decisions on pending cases for weeks or even months after the initial arguments. Their judicial calendar often runs from October to June. June is often when the final decisions on most of the cases heard are published in detail.

Since early October, analysts have had widely varying opinions on the extent of the damage the tariffs have caused to US soybean exports. The numbers ranged from 200 to 450 million bushels of reduced soybean exports for the marketing year from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026.

Within 15 minutes of the report’s release, the market will return to trading weather and politics.