Farmers report mixed early corn yields across the Corn Belt

By Jon Scheve

The USDA’s September Supply and Demand Report made only minor adjustments. Planted corn acreage was raised slightly while yield estimates were trimmed. Higher export projections offset the additional bushels, leaving carryout nearly unchanged from last month.

The market responded by trading higher, likely because many traders think the yield estimate is still too high, given the widespread disease pressure and some late-season dryness throughout the United States. Yield estimates will remain relatively uncertain for another month until harvest results become more available, and the USDA provides updated numbers in next month’s report.

Early yield results
Early harvest results I’m seeing seem inconclusive. Some farmers along the Nebraska-Kansas line are reporting yields 5% to 10% above normal. However, other farmers only a few miles away say yields are 5% to 10% lower than average, especially when fungicide wasn’t applied.

Other farmers are telling me their yields on fields that were treated for disease will likely produce far less than they expected only a month ago. I suspect these kinds of reports are tripping up market participants. At first, this statement sounds like the yields will be really bad. However, I then asked these farmers what they thought their yield would be compared to normal years. Most farmers said that up until a month ago, growing conditions were great and they were expecting a record yield. Now they suspect it may only be slightly above average. Very few farmers who treated for disease that I spoke with are expecting below-average yields.

Reports along the Iowa-Minnesota state line from silage harvesters indicate very good yields, with some fields potentially 20% above normal. Reports from the Ohio silage crop indicate corn planted in April is producing well above average, too. However, those same farmers said the corn planted in late May may have reduced yields due to the dry late August weather.

National yield picture
The weather throughout the growing season in corn-producing areas did not experience much dryness until late August. Throughout July, only 9% of the Corn Belt experienced drought conditions. By the first week of August, that area had dropped to 3%. That is significantly lower than the 30% and 50% of the Corn Belt experiencing drought conditions during the same time periods in 2021 and 2022.

July is the most crucial time for corn plant development, so timely rains during this period are critical. Compared with 2024, there was also a lot more rain in July and early August this year. While the last half of August was drier this year than the same period a year ago, I don’t expect that will impact corn production nearly as much as it could hurt the soybean yield.

As the map below shows, about half of the U.S. corn crop is grown north of Interstate 80, and the weather there this year has been nearly ideal and could be a record in many places.

Yield concerns south of Interstate 80 may come from areas with disease pressure, but should likely be confined to the western Corn Belt. Also, the late-season dry weather in the eastern Corn Belt could impact yields, but it might have happened late enough so as not to devastate them by very much.

Bottom line
Many farmers had ideal weather conditions until mid-August. Then, in the last 30 days, the southern half of the Corn Belt began experiencing dry weather and disease. It’s now uncertain how much this will actually impact yields.

However, July weather impacts corn yields much more than August weather. Plus, many farmers may be pessimistic, thinking that a month ago they were getting record yields and now they may only get slightly better than normal yields. Nevertheless, even average or just slightly better than average is still a good outcome. If the entire Corn Belt experiences this, then the final yield could come in higher than many believe.

Please email jon@schevegrain.com with any questions or to learn more. Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, Neb. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans, and other grains for the last 25 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 15 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential, and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.

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